Concern over consumers centre-stage at CAGNY

With north-eastern parts of the US covered in snow, and more snow forecast for south-east England this week, a few days in Florida holds a certain appeal.

This week, the leaders of some of the world's largest food manufacturers head to Florida for the annual Consumer Analyst Group of New York (CAGNY) conference to discuss the downturn and how to deal with still-weak consumer confidence in many markets.

A year ago, the economic storm-clouds meant executives and analysts headed to the Sunshine State to debate the impact the recession was having on the sector. Little has changed. Anxiety remains. Thanks to short-term fiscal stimulus packages, Western economies have technically moved out of recession - but concern over public debt, unemployment and tax hikes remain. Food may be recession-resilient but, among the big brand-owners, there is apprehension over the prospects for consumer spending.

US dairy giant Dean Foods will present at CAGNY just days after admitting that pressure from retailers had hit its margins during the last three months to 2009. US retailers are "aggressively" looking for better prices on private-label milk, Dean Foods said, and "bidding processors against one another".

The company's comments add more weight to claims that private label will remain buoyant in the US this year. One leading own-label supplier, TreeHouse Foods, has labelled 2010 as a "year of opportunity" for the business and predicted that private label will outpace the broader US grocery market. Such debates are sure to be a key feature of this year's CAGNY.

Others set for the spotlight in CAGNY include Danone. The French food group will present on Thursday (18 February) and chairman and CEO Franck Riboud is likely to be upbeat after insisting last week that the company had "controlled" 2009 better than he had expected. The yoghurt maker's moves to combat weak consumer spending with launches of cut-price brands of its own will be keenly analysed by those brand-owners fighting private label.

General Mills, meanwhile, will look to provide further detail on how it is battling own label. Just before Christmas, the owner of brands including Cheerios cereal and Haagen-Dazs ice cream said its portfolio had thrived despite efforts by retailers to cut the number of brands on sale in favour of own labels. General Mills said its cereals and grain snacks were holding up well and hinted at further innovation right across the business in 2010.

On Thursday, snacks giant PepsiCo is set to use CAGNY to give more detail on its international plans after revealing last week that it wants to expand its snack business globally. The Frito-Lay owner is eyeing markets like China for growth after its international operations continued to drive growth in the last three months of 2009.

On Tuesday, chocolate maker Hershey will also likely be quizzed on its own global ambitions. Some have questioned how far Hershey can go outside the US after the company stepped out of the race to buy Cadbury but CEO Dave West insists there is much to play for in a fragmented global confectionery market.

The conqueror of Cadbury, Kraft Foods, which also announces its 2009 numbers on Tuesday, will likely be grilled on its plans to absorb the UK confectioner and how it plans to keep its business moving forward while it integrates the Dairy Milk maker.

Kraft's acquisition of Cadbury will likely spark some debate over whether we are set for a more buoyant M&A market in 2010. Opinion seems split, although with the economy remaining weak, with consumer confidence under threat from unemployment and tax hikes and with conditions in the credit market still tight, the signs point to a conservative 2010 on the M&A front. A focus on core business seems a prudent one.

just-food will be monitoring the conference in the Florida city of Boca Raton, which is known as something of a retirement resort in the US.

The next few days, however, promise to be anything but relaxing for the food execs under the microscope.