Katy Humphries

The food business blog from Katy Humphries

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Polman confident on Unilever brands

13 Jun 2011 15:36

Paul Polman, chief executive of consumer goods giant Unilever, has insisted that the company can achieve double-digit sales growth excluding M&A, meaning that the group would have to generate organic growth of an industry-beating 7-8%.

In an interview with The Financial Times this weekend, Polman said that the company was currently generating 95% of its growth through its own brands. And, Poleman said, the company will rely on these to drive future expansion and meet sales targets. Fighting talk indeed.

Admittedly, Unilever does own some mighty brands - ranging from Magnum, Hellmann's and Knorr in the food sector to Dove and Lynx personal care products. And Poleman's plans to capitalise on "white space" - moving brands into markets that they are not currently represented in - sound all well and good.

"Market development is probably one of the biggest drivers that we see, in these emerging markets especially. These markets are often one tenth of the markets that we see here in Europe and the US, and they're rapidly catching up," he told the FT.

However, in setting the group such high targets - ones that the company's peers such as Nestle and Danone have been unable to deliver - at a time when global consumer confidence is far from high, does seem rather bullish. And while Unilever's aim to extend the reach of its brands is certainly sound, does this emerging markets strategy really bring anything new to the table? Only time will tell.

 

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Hershey considering Stitzer for top job?

09 Jun 2011 15:18

A number of reports this week have suggested that US chocolate maker Hershey is considering former Cadbury CEO Todd Stitzer as a candidate to fill the post of chief executive.

In a surprise announcement last month, Hershey boss Dave West revealed that he was defecting to Del Monte Foods, leaving the top job at the US chocolate maker vacant.

While acting CEO and COO John Bilbrey is for the most part viewed as the front runner, it appears that Stitzer could also be in the frame.

Indeed, in some ways Stitzer's appointment makes a lot of sense and - were it to go ahead - it could prove a pivotal moment for the Hershey Kisses and Reece's Pieces marker.

Having spent 27 years at Cadbury, Stitzer knows the chocolate game in-and-out and certainly the management of some of Cadbury's iconic brands could be compared to their Hershey counterparts.

Additionally, it would seem that Stitzer has a decent relationship with Hershey as the two sides talked about a "white knight" bid for Cadbury as an alternative to the Kraft Foods takeover. Hershey also distributed Creme Eggs and Cadbury chocolate bars in the US, prior to the group's takeover by Hershey's American rival.

However, what could prove really significant is Stitzer's international experience. Cadbury was a truly international chocolate player, with a large proportion of its sales being generated in emerging markets. In sharp contrast, while Hershey has an exceptionally strong US presence, its operations are decidedly focused on its domestic market.

For some time, question marks have hung over whether Hershey will look to drive growth overseas. And, while the company has in recent years improved its performance with better US sales and margins, it has failed to give any clear indication of whether it has any long-term ambitions to grow internationally.

Perhaps, then, if Hershey were to appoint Stitzer this could be seen as the clearest sign yet that the US chocolate icon is gearing up to enter the international fray and attempt to expand overseas.

 

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Nestle eyes growth - "everywhere"

17 May 2011 15:30

Like many of its global food industry peers, Nestle has again emphasised its target to drive growth in emerging markets.

Speaking during an exclusive Q&A conference call hosted by Sanford Bernstein, Nestle CEO Paul Bulcke said that the appeal of emerging markets has resulted in a dramatic step-up in competition, particularly in Brazil, India and China. Local players have become increasingly formidable while multinationals have invested heavily in expanding their presence.

Nevertheless, Bulcke was quick to emphasise that Nestle remained well-positioned to capitalise on the opportunities afforded in emerging markets: "We have...competitive advantages, because we have been there for more than 100 years. We have local management managing these operations there," he said.

While Nestle may feel that it has the march on its competitors in emerging markets, the strategy that really sets the world's largest food group apart from the pack is its intention to look "everywhere" for growth - including "inducing" rising demand in developed markets.

Addressing investors, Bulcke insisted that growth must come from all parts of the business. "First of all, you have to make it explicit to your organisation that you want to look for growth in all parts of the world".

Last fiscal, Nestle generated organic growth of 3% in developed markets such as Western Europe and the US. The group drove expansion in tough conditions through innovation, a focus on "emerging consumers" and its nutrition, health and wellness framework. And, according to Bulcke, opportunities for expansion remain in developed markets.

"Food in Western Europe...is only 10-15% of family budgets...it was much more in the past. I think there is an upside opportunity...but [Nestlé] is not waiting to see the trend happening...it is actually inducing the trend".

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ConAgra turns hostile in Ralcorp bid

04 May 2011 18:04

ConAgra's bid to acquire Ralcorp Holdings took a new turn today (3 May) when, after a failed attempt to open a dialogue with the private label manufacturer's board, the Chef Boyardee and Healthy Choice maker decided to pitch its offer directly to Ralcorp shareholders.

ConAgra has offered US$86 per share for the company and, although this represents quite a premium on Ralcorp's share price before takeover talk pushed it up last week, shares in the group already surpassed this value in morning trade today, rising to $88.05 on the NYSE by noon.

Ralcorp shares have been driven up by speculative investors who are betting that ConAgra will be forced to up its offer. And, according to ConAgra itself, the compelling strategic rationale behind the move could justify an improved price.

Outlining its motivations for the deal, ConAgra said that the combination would result in the formation of the third largest US food group, a powerhouse with iconic brands and - significantly - an extremely strong presence in the fast-growing private label sector.

According to ConAgra, over the past five years private label has grown from 16.4% of sales in the supermarket channel to 18.9%. Perhaps, then, the attempted acquisition of Ralcorp can be viewed as an indication of the strategic emphasis that ConAgra is placing on growing this side of the business: ConAgra already has a decent showing as a private label manufacturer and it seems that the company is backing sustained growth of the private label sector in the US.

Another reason why investors are willing to wager that the hammer will fall on Ralcorp for a higher price is speculation that a financial investor could step in with a counter bid.

Financial buyers could be attracted to the group given its scale, leverage and the potential to improve free cash-flow generation, analysts have suggested. With Apollo Global Management already linked to a possible move, this eventuality does not seem entirely far-fetched. Indeed, Morningstar analyst Erin Lash yesterday suggested that a realistic price for deal realisation would be in the region of $90 per share.

With all these factors at play, we can certainly expect the negotiations between Ralcorp and ConAgra to make headlines for some time to come.

 

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Tesco price comparison promo backfires

28 Mar 2011 15:42

In a move that has drawn massive amounts of the wrong kind of publicity for Tesco, the UK retail giant has been forced to introduce a GBP20 (US$32) cap on its offer to "double the difference" if a product can be found cheaper at rival Asda.

The promotion, launched last month, was Tesco's answer to Asda's claim that it was 10% cheaper than rivals.

We are all familiar with the price-comparison bickering that goes on between supermarkets. So, the majority of consumers took these claims with a pinch of salt. There were those, however, who saw an opportunity to cash in on this back-and-forth bluster.

A little research at both stores allowed some savvy shoppers to identify which products were cheaper at Asda. They were then able to fill their baskets with these, log on to Tesco's price checking website and double the - sometimes quite substantial - price difference with vouchers to spend in store.

And it didn't end there. Word spread. Chat rooms and forums were filled with discussion threads giving advice on how to "get your shopping for free" at Tesco by first shopping at Asda. Consumers were also able to use some price comparison websites to see where they could get the best deal - and if the answer was Asda they could then get a better deal with Tesco vouchers.

For its part, Tesco played down the scale of the incident, insisting that only "a very small" number of people have saught to "make some money out of our guarantee".

"Fewer than one in 5,000 customers have been awarded vouchers over GBP20. We commend their ingenuity, but this isn't why we set up the guarantee. So we've introduced a GBP20 limit," a spokesperson said.

Meanwhile, a (rather smug) Asda spokesperson suggested that the fiasco shows Tesco "fails to live up to its promise" to be the cheapest supermarket.

"That they have had to introduce a cap on their price comparison guarantee suggests that they really aren't all they claim to be," the spokesperson said.

 

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Brands: too in your Face-book?

11 Mar 2011 16:44

With social networking all the rage, food manufacturers have for some time been looking for ways to reach out to consumers through this relatively new medium. However, a recent study suggests that some of the more common methods of online marketing are failing to do so.

While three out of every four US teens go online every day, only 6% want to interact with brands on popular networking site Facebook, a survey released by Forrester Research has concluded.

Additionally, teens want to be the initiators of any conversations they have with brands via social networking sites - rather than being passively fed marketing messages. While 16% of 12- to 18-year-olds expect companies to use social tools to interact with them, 28% want companies to listen to what they are saying on networking sites and answer any questions they may have, the researchers found.

More tellingly still, Forrester said that only one in four teens surveyed said they find brand profiles on social networks to be "trustworthy" - but two in four trust television advertisments. So, teens are far more likely to place faith in traditional marketing mediums, the researchers suggested.

These findings pour cold water on many manufacturers' efforts to reach out to the sought-after teen demographic online and suggest that marketers may need to take a fresh look at how they use social media like Facebook.

Heinz has attempted to do just that with the launch a ketchup flavour that is currently only available through the brand's Facebook page. The initial roll out of Heinz' new balsamic flavoured ketchup in the UK will see 3,000 bottles go on sale to "fans" who have said that they "like" the group's Facebook page.

After this initial promotion, Heinz will then initiate a broader roll out to UK retailers.

"Social media is increasingly at the forefront of this consumer consumption evolution which is why we've decided to use our popular UK Facebook page to ensure our most loyal fans get the chance to try Heinz Tomato Ketchup with Balsamic Vinegar before anyone else. We are anticipating demand will be high and the product will sell out in days," Heinz head of marketing Ian McCarthy said.

To an extent, Heinz is preaching to the converted by reaching out to those who have already identified themselves with the brand on Facebook. However, the company is clearly hoping that rewarding loyal customers and increasing the online "buzz" surrounding the product launch will attract attention and a sales lift at regular retail outlets will follow.

 

 

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Retailers face food inflation backlash

09 Mar 2011 14:31

Food inflation is always going to ruffle feathers. Nobody likes paying more for stuff. But when it comes to non-discretionary spending on goods like petrol or food, price hikes can make a tangible difference to the quality of people's lives.

Deservedly, then, significant changes in these costs attract considerable media attention. Remember the "chaos at the pumps" headlines that dominated discourse in the UK in the none too distant past? Well, now its food retailers who are facing a grilling from the country's media.

Fresh figures from the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development revealed today (9 March) that January food inflation in the UK reached a startling 6.3% on an annual basis. In contrast average food inflation in the eurozone was just 1.5% on the year.

This news, coming on the heels of last week's UBS report drawing the similar conclusion that UK food inflation outstripped the other OECD countries, has added weight to the popular conception of "rip-off Britain".

just-food heard a range of industry views on the issue earlier this week at the Westminster Food and Nutrition Forum, when it was stressed that one possible answer to rising prices is a greater use of GM technology.

Significantly for retailers, the statistics have added to mounting public concern that supermarkets are taking advantage of rising global food and commodity prices to add a few percentage points to their food margins. Indeed, UBS analysts confirm that food inflation has "significantly outstripped food retailers' cost inflation" and warned that such behaviour could result in a government inquiry. Meanwhile, HSBC analyst Karen Ward went so far as to warn that the UK is not immune to the kind of food riots seen in other parts of the world.

"Even in the developed world I think we have very, very low wage growth, so people aren't getting more in their pay packet to compensate them for food and energy, and I think we could see social unrest certainly in parts of the developed world and the UK as well," she told Sky News yesterday.

The retailers are - perhaps unsurprisingly - telling quite a different tale. In a statement released today, the British Retail Consortium claimed that food inflation had actually stabilised, rising by 4.5% in February but down from January's level of 4.6%. "The small fall compared with January shows retailers are doing everything they can to keep price rises to a minimum. This is demonstrated by the record proportion of groceries on promotion or discount, currently 39%," Stephen Robertson, director general of the BRC, insisted.

Groups representing the supermarket sector have highlighted a swathe of issues - from rising transportation costs to sky-rocketing commodity prices - to explain why prices are increasing so steeply. Significantly, according to DEFRA, the UK imports about 41% of its food, meaning that prices are greatly impacted by fluctuations on the currency markets.

While all these factors add to the pressure on retailers to increase prices, it seems likely that these explanations alone will not be enough to pour oil on troubled waters. The sector could be in for a bumpy ride as an increasingly cynical public is forced to tolerate high food price inflation.

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UK supermarkets attracting heat - again

07 Mar 2011 17:18

UK supermarkets drew fresh criticism today (7 March) after it was claimed that they use inflated job creation pledges to win planning permission.

A report in The Times said Tesco and Sainsbury's have made "extravagant claims" about the number of jobs they create, when their annual reports reveal that they employ fewer people today than two years ago.

According to figures seen by The Times, in its 2008-9 report, Tesco pledged to create 11,000 jobs in the following year. However, the company's total UK store workforce shows a net rise of only 1,305. Likewise, Sainsbury's claimed to have created 13,000 jobs over the last two years - but staff numbers fell by around 1,600.

Commenting on the findings, James Lowman of the Association of Convenience Stores said that supermarkets hoped to get "an easier time on planning rules" by inflating their job-creation figures. "Suggestions that supermarket expansion automatically creates new jobs do not stack up," he warned.

Cue an outpouring of anti-supermarket sentiment on the forums, with readers bemoaning the death of the British middle class: after all how can we remain a nation of shop keepers in the face of such heinous corporate juggernauts?

As a nation, why does the UK seem to be so ambivalent in its collective attitude to supermarkets? Because, lets face it, how many of the readers expressing so vociferously their distaste at the power of supermarkets still shop at them? If the shadowy figure of the evil corporation is so terrible, why do sales keep growing? If supermarkets are so very unwelcome, then why do consumers use them?

The answers are simple: price perception, convenience and range.

I live in a little town that time forgot. We have a thriving High Street with grocers, butchers, bakers and confectioners abound. And - in contrast to what we have been told - the independent shops in our area are cheaper than the supermarkets for the most part. But - as a young family with two working parents - we simply don't always have time to frequent them as often as we'd like. They are only open while we are working. You have to make a dozen stops instead of one. And they don't carry everything that you need. (Much to my chagrin, it is impossible to get chives anywhere in the entire town.) Instead, for us, local shopping is more event-based. We plan, discuss and savour the experience. I suspect that the real reason why our local High Street is prospering is a demographic one: we live in an area with a high proportion of retired people who have the time to shop during the day.

So what is the answer for independent shops? How can they compete with supermarkets? For the most part, I think that they can't - not toe-to-toe at any rate. Small stores have to fill a niche, they have to be located in the right places, they have to appeal to specific consumer groups who have the time and money to shop locally.

But in all this - even as some local retailers may fall by the wayside - I would argue that supermarkets aren't the villain of the piece. They fill a need that local shops can't. And, in spite of any allegations of skulduggery in their job creation stats, they do remain among the country's largest employers.

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Emerging market talk dominates CAGNY

25 Feb 2011 17:05

As ever, this year's CAGNY conference threw up some interesting commentary from the US food industry's top brass.

Over the past four days we have heard an awful lot about how food makers intend to drive profits and safeguard margins in the face of ever rising costs. A popular answer to this problem seems to be the magic formula of improved efficiency and sales expansion.

Easy right? We've all heard it before: drive sales by investing in marketing, brand building and NPD. Cash in on big consumer trends like health and wellness or convenience. Know your consumer and target your audience wisely (baby boomers, moms and Hispanics seem to be the most sort-after US shoppers these days). Push through price increases while also remaining competitive: after all, often protecting the value of your brand means NOT being the cheapest option on the shelf because you have spent a lot of time and money telling consumers why they should pay more for your products.

But then add to the pot a fiercely competitive landscape where all your peers are attempting the same thing and, in doing so, blocking your moves to increase market share. Your categories are not showing significant growth, your domestic market is stagnating and consumer purse strings remain tight. Suddenly the goal of increasing sales doesn't sound so simple.

This is why one of the main themes running through CAGNY this year has been the need to expand in emerging markets. The likes of General Mills, Hershey and McCormick were all eager to detail this ambition.

Some of the most colourful comments on the subject, however, came from Heinz boss William Johnson. The opportunity in emerging markets "clearly stands above the rest", he told his audience yesterday (24 February).

However, rather than emphasising the differences between established and emerging markets, Johnson highlighted some of the – perhaps unexpected – similarities. Many of the same trends are driving sales in emerging and developed markets, where Johnson said Heinz has benefited from a growing demand for western brands and flavours.

Interestingly, Johnson said, the ways that Heinz communicated to potential consumers are also broadly the same. The emergence of social networking and wireless technologies may be the marketing story of the day in North America and Europe, but – according to Johnson – it is also a huge issue impacting Heinz in developing markets. "Digital wireless technology has exploded in emerging markets," Johnson observed.

And, quipping that there are "more cell phones that toilets" in India, Johnson even provided his audience with a whole new metric to measure economic development.

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Katy is on maternity leave

04 Jun 2010 14:51

just-food is very pleased to announce that our deputy editor Katy Humphries has had a baby girl and is subsequently on maternity leave. I am sure all our readers will join us in wishing her and her expanded family all the best and forgive the break in normal service of her blog.

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