Cookies and Cookie Bars - US - November 2010
Report description
With annual sales of more than $6 billion and some of the world’s biggest manufacturers, including Kraft and Kellogg’s as major players, the category has the potential to be at the forefront of how companies engage their target audiences through traditional and emerging media.
However the market is effectively stagnant, and declining in real terms. This is a mature market in which category players struggle to find new users and occasions, and part of the reason for lackluster sales is the growth of private label cookies, which have brought down unit prices.
The category is potentially caught in the crossfire of consumers’ desire to eat better and the government actively promoting healthier lifestyles. At this point, cookies and cookie bars are not drawing the same level of attention as fast food restaurants or carbonated beverages, but given the popularity of cookie and cookie bars with children, it is possible that this could change as health experts cast a wider net for foods they consider to be lacking in nutritional benefits.
This report provides an in-depth look at the cookie and cookie bar category by addressing the following topics:
* What role do children’s consumption levels and other key demographics play in terms of the category’s overall sales performance?
* Given the ongoing economic struggles, how much of a factor is private label and what is its impact on how name brands operate?
* As “better-for-you” options become increasingly popular, what are cookie manufacturers doing to address this market while maintaining the category’s appeal as a fun treat?
* Which retailers do best at attracting cookie customers and how can they leverage their unique strengths to protect their share of the business?
* What are the latest product innovations and what role, if any, has the recession had on companies’ investment in new products?
* As social media continues to emerge as a marketing tool, what is its role in companies’ overall marketing strategies?
* How do consumers perceive the category and how does that affect their buying behavior and influence the success or failure of cookie and cookie bar brands?
* What influence do race and other key demographics have on the category and how can manufacturers and retailers leverage unique characteristics of each to maximize their opportunities?
Table of contents
What you need to know
Definition
Data sources
Market data
Consumer survey data
Abbreviations and terms
Abbreviations
Terms
Executive Summary
Cookies and cookie bars, a large but stagnant category
Explore sales for younger children and their parents
Indulgence wins over healthy
Standard cookies remain category’s largest segment
Supermarkets attract largest share of category sales
Natural channel business
Kraft Foods top cookie manufacturer
Private label grows at the expense of name brands
Chocolate is most common flavor-based introduction
Who is the cookie and cookie bar consumer?
Market Size and Forecast
Key points
Cookies and cookie bars sales essentially flat
Figure 1: U.S. sales and forecast of cookies and cookie bars, at current prices, 2005-15
Figure 2: U.S. sales and forecast of cookies and cookie bars, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2005-15
Fan chart forecast
Figure 3: U.S. sales and fan forecast of cookies and cookie bars, at current prices, 2005-15
Walmart sales
Market Drivers
Key points
Children key to cookie consumption levels
Figure 4: Population, by age, 2005-15
Obesity concerns may be impacting usage
Figure 5: Age-adjusted prevalence of being overweight, obese, or extremely obese, among adults aged 20 or older, 1988-2008
Ongoing economic troubles has people packing more lunches
Consumers turning to private label
Competitive Context
Key points
In-store bakeries and specialty retailers competing against cookie aisle
Cookies made from scratch and refrigerated products/mixes eat into shelf-stable sales
Girl Scout cookies providing more than friendly competition
Segment Performance
Key points
Standard cookies continue category dominance
Figure 6: FDMx sales and forecast of cookies and cookie bars, at current prices, by segment, 2005-15
Continued economic troubles bolster private label sales
Figure 7: FDMx sales of cookies and cookie bars, by type of cookie, 2009 and 2010
Segment Performance—Standard Cookies
Key points
Standard cookies enjoy big sales but small growth
Sales and forecast—standard cookies
Figure 8: FDMx sales of standard cookies, at current prices, 2005-15
Segment Performance – Healthy Cookies
Key points
Consumers saying one thing but buying another
Older consumers most interested in healthier attributes
Sales and forecast—healthy cookies
Figure 9: FDMx sales of healthy cookies, at current prices, 2005-15
Segment Performance—Premium Cookies
Key points
Sales flat since 2005
Cookies as an affordable indulgence
Sales and forecast—premium cookies
Figure 10: FDMx sales and forecast of premium cookies, at current prices, 2005-15
Segment Performance—Private Label Cookies
Key points
Weak economy makes for strong sales
Store brands have room to grow
Sales and forecast—private label cookies
Figure 11: FDMx sales and forecast of private label cookies, at current prices, 2005-15
Segment Performance—Cookie Bars
Key points
Lowering the bar on cookie bar sales
Difference between cookies and bars could be a selling point
Sales and forecast—cookie bars
Figure 12: FDMx sales and forecast of cookie bars, at current prices, 2005-15
Retail Channels
Key points
Supermarkets attract largest share of category sales
Channel sales distribution remains relatively unchanged
Non-FDMx outlets second only to supermarkets for cookie/cookie bar sales
Figure 13: Sales of cookies and cookie bars, by retail channel, 2009 and 2010
Retail Channels—Supermarkets
Key points
Supermarkets’ sales are stagnant
Cookies are popular with families, a core supermarket audience
Figure 14: Sales of cookies and cookie bars at supermarkets, 2005-10
Retail Channels—Other FDMx
Key points
Other FDMx benefitting from down economy
Challenges to cookies in these outlets
Figure 15: Sales of cookies and cookie bars at other fdmx, 2005-10
Retail Channels – Other Non-FDMx Outlets
Key points
Sales continue slow upward climb
Premium cookies a fixture of these outlets
Figure 16: Sales of cookies and cookie bars at other non-fdmx outlets, 2005-10
Natural Channel/SPINS
Key points
Segment sales basically flat
Sales of cookies in the natural channel
Figure 17: Natural supermarket sales of cookies, at current prices, 2008-10
Figure 18: Natural supermarket sales of cookies, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2008-10
Implications
Leading brands
Newman’s Own Organics still number one despite significant decline
Gluten-free Pamela’s grows while Weetabix’ Barbara’s slows
Kraft’s Back to Nature small but growing
Bernie the Rabbit boosts sales of Annie’s Homegrown cookies
Natural channel sales of cookies by organic
Figure 19: Natural supermarket sales of cookies, by organic vs. non-organic, August 2008 and August 2010
Natural channel sales of cookies by gluten-free
Figure 20: Natural supermarket sales of cookies, by gluten-free or not, August 2008 and August 2010
Leading Companies
Key points
Kraft Foods top cookie manufacturer
Private label grows at the expense of name brands
Figure 21: FDMx sales of leading cookies and cookie bar manufacturers, 2009 and 2010
Brand Share—Standard Cookies
Key points
Nabisco leverages strong Oreo brand identity
Figure 22: FDMx brand sales of standard cookies, 2009 and 2010
Brand Share—Healthy Cookies
Key points
Big companies generate biggest share of business
Figure 23: FDMx brand sales of healthy cookies, 2009 and 2010
Brand Share—Premium Cookies
Key points
Pepperidge Farm experiences poor crop of sales
Figure 24: FDMx brand sales of premium cookies, 2009 and 2010
Brand Share—Cookie Bars
Key points
Little Debbie leverages value positioning
Figure 25: FDMx brand sales of cookie bars, 2009 and 2010
Innovation and Innovators
Key points
Chocolate is most common flavor-based introduction
Figure 26: Cookie launches, by flavor, 2005–10
Kosher most common label/function claim
Figure 27: Cookie launches, by label/function claim, 2005–10
The following are examples of the notable cookie and cookie bar introductions over the last year.
Standard cookies
Healthy
Premium
Private label
Cookie bars
Marketing Strategies
Key points
Brand and merchandising strategies
Nabisco
Keebler
Pepperidge Farm
McKee Foods
Facebook and other online initiatives
Nabisco
Keebler
Pepperidge Farm
Little Debbie
Kraft Foods’ “You Gotta LOL” series
Television advertising
Keebler Fudge Stripes
Figure 28: Keebler/Fudge Stripes Cookies, “Last Cookie,” TV ad, July 2010
Chips Ahoy!
Figure 29: Nabisco/Chips Ahoy!, “There’s a lotta joy in Chips Ahoy!” TV ad, May 2010
Double Stuf Oreo
Figure 30: Nabisco/Double Stuf Oreo, “Make the call,” TV ad, September 2010
Trends and Types of Cookies Eaten
Key points
Long-term trends
Figure 31: Household consumption of ready-to-eat cookies, 2003–10
Figure 32: Household consumption of ready-to-eat cookies, by type of cookie, 2003-10
Cookie types eaten—demographics
Figure 33: Household consumption of ready-to-eat cookies, by type of cookie, by age, February 2009-March 2010
Figure 34: Household consumption of ready-to-eat cookies, by type of cookie, by household income, February 2009-March 2010
Figure 35: Household consumption of ready-to-eat cookies, by type of cookie, by number of people in HH, February 2009-March 2010
Figure 36: Household consumption of ready-to-eat cookies, by type of cookie, by presence of children, February 2009-March 2010
Brand Consumption of Cookies—Adults, Teens and Kids
Key points
Keebler
Figure 37: Consumption of Keebler cookies, by brand, by adults, teens and kids, 2009-10
Nabisco
Figure 38: Consumption of Nabisco cookies, by brand, by adults, teens and kids, 2009-10
Pepperidge Farm
Figure 39: Consumption of Pepperidge Farm cookies, by brand, by adults, teens and kids, 2009-10
Other cookies
Figure 40: Consumption of other cookies, by brand, by adults, teens and kids, 2009-10
Eating Cookies and Cookie Bars
Key points
Frequency of eating
Figure 41: Frequency of eating cookies and cookie bars, July 2010
Figure 42: Frequency of eating cookies and cookie bars, by gender, July 2010
Figure 43: Frequency of eating cookies and cookie bars, by age, July 2010
Forms of cookies and cookie bars eaten
Figure 44: Forms of cookies and cookie bars eaten in past month, by gender, July 2010
Figure 45: Forms of cookies and cookie bars eaten in past month, by age, July 2010
Figure 46: Forms of cookies and cookie bars eaten in past month, by presence and number of children, July 2010
Figure 47: Forms of cookies and cookie bars eaten in past month, by region, July 2010
Factors Influencing Cookie and Cookie Bar Purchase
Key points
Attributes that matter most when buying cookies
Figure 48: Ingredients and other elements considered when buying cookies, by age, July 2010
Figure 49: Ingredients and other elements considered when buying cookies, by urban status, July 2010
Perception of Natural Cookies
Key points
Natural cookie perception by key demographics
Figure 50: Perception of “all natural” cookies vs. others, by gender, July 2010
Figure 51: Perception of “all natural” cookies vs. others, by age, July 2010
Figure 52: Perception of “all natural” cookies vs. others, by household income, July 2010
Cookies Purchase
Key points
How cookies are bought and used
Figure 53: How cookies are bought and used, by gender, July 2010
Figure 54: How cookies are bought and used, by household income, July 2010
How cookies are bought and used—the kid effect
Figure 55: How cookies are bought and used when it comes to kids, by gender, July 2010
How cookies are chosen/cooked
Figure 56: How cookies are chosen/cooked, by gender, July 2010
Figure 57: How cookies are chosen/cooked, by age, July 2010
Cookies—The Decision-Making Process and Role of Private Label
Key points
Decision making
Figure 58: The decision-making process and choosing cookies, by age, July 2010
Figure 59: The decision-making process and choosing cookies, by household income, July 2010
Figure 60: The decision-making process and choosing cookies, by presence and number of children, July 2010
Why buy private label?
Figure 61: Reason for buying private label cookies, July 2010
Why Reach for a Cookie?
Key points
Cookie-eating occasions
Figure 62: Occasions when people reach for a cookie, by gender, July 2010
Figure 63: Occasions when people reach for a cookie, by age, July 2010
Figure 64: Occasions when people reach for a cookie, by household income, July 2010
Figure 65: Occasions when people reach for a cookie, by presence and number of children, July 2010
What Should a Cookie Be?
Key points
Figure 66: Importance of cookie traits—health vs. indulgence, price vs. taste, simple vs. complex; by gender, July 2010
Figure 67: Importance of cookie traits – health vs. indulgence, price vs. taste, simple vs. complex; by age, July 2010
Figure 68: Importance of cookie traits – health vs. indulgence, price vs. taste. simple vs. complex; by household income, July 2010
Figure 69: Importance of cookie traits – health vs. indulgence, price vs. taste, simple vs. complex; by marital status, July 2010
Figure 70: Importance of cookie traits – health vs. indulgence, price vs. taste, simple vs. complex; by presence and numer of children, July 2010
Impact of Race/Hispanic Origin
Key points
Cookie consumption by race/Hispanic origin
Figure 71: Household consumption of ready-to-eat cookies, by race/Hispanic origin, February 2009-March 2010
Cookie types eaten
Figure 72: Household consumption of ready-to-eat cookies, by type of cookie, by race/Hispanic origin, February 2009-March 2010
Frequency of eating
Figure 73: Frequency of eating cookies and cookie bars, by race/Hispanic origin, July 2010
Forms of cookies and cookie bars eaten
Figure 74: Forms of cookies and cookie bars eaten in past month, by race/Hispanic origin, July 2010
Factors influencing cookie and cookie bar purchase
Figure 75: Ingredients and other elements considered when buying cookies, by race/Hispanic origin, July 2010
Perception of natural cookies
Figure 76: Perception of “all natural” cookies vs. others, by race/Hispanic origin, July 2010
How cookies are bought and used
Figure 77: How cookies are bought and used, by race/Hispanic origin, July 2010
How cookies are chosen/cooked
Figure 78: How cookies are chosen/cooked, by race/Hispanic origin, July 2010
Cookies—The decision-making process
Figure 79: The decision making process and choosing cookies, by race/Hispanic origin, July 2010
Why reach for a cookie?
Figure 80: Occasions when people reach for a cookie, by race/Hispanic origin, July 2010
What should a cookie be?
Figure 81: Importance of cookie traits – health vs. indulgence, price vs. taste, simple vs. complex; by race/Hispanic origin, July 2010
Appendix—Trade Associations
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