France Food and Drink Report Q1 2013
Report description
Leading indicators point towards stagnant growth in France, and there are no suggestions that a robust recovery in 2013 will be forthcoming. Indeed, a combination of low consumer confidence, rising unemployment, stagnant real wage growth and the increasing likelihood of a slowdown in the housing market are all liable to keep private consumption subdued over the medium term.
Headline Industry Data (local currency)
? 2013 per capita food consumption = +0.8%; forecast to 2017 = +6.0
%? 2013 alcoholic drink value sales = +2.4%; forecast to 2017 = +5.1
%? 2013 soft drink value sales = +3.0%; forecast to 2017 = +20.0
%? 2013 mass grocery retail sales = +2.5%; forecast to 2017 = +16.5
%Key Industry Trends And Developments
Peltz Plots Changes at Danone: Trian Fund Management, the vehicle of activist investor Nelson Peltz, has taken a 1% stake in French food group Danone. Reports suggest that Peltz is not looking for a wholesale shake-up of the firm and will instead put pressure on the firm to improve its margins and return cash to investors through share buy-backs. Danone's share price is still below its 2007 highs, and the firm's performance has been dampened by the weakness of the European market, where margins have come under pressure. Despite reports to the contrary, we see the possibility of Peltz pushing for more fundamental reforms, with the firm's low-margin bottled water business still, in our view, looking incongruous with the wider business.
Brand Builders Better Off Without Champagne?: Recent figures from the Fédération des Exportateurs de Vins et Spiritueux de France point to a healthy rise in wine and spirit exports from France in the first half of 2012, with total sales up by 14% by value. At the same time, an executive at Pernod Ricard suggested that champagne producers must focus on markets outside of Europe to survive. Currently, growth in French alcohol exports is being driven by the success of premium red wine and cognac, and the champagne sector has not yet fully cemented itself as a drink of choice among the world's emerging middle classes. This has already prompted Rémy Cointreau to exit the sector and could potentially push other major brand builders to focus their resources on the other parts of their business.
Key Risks To Outlook
Domestic Uncertainty: We see potential for a deeper-than-expected contraction in government consumption as revenues undershoot, forcing the government to push through deeper cuts in order to meet its fiscal targets.
Table of contents
Chapter - BMI Industry View
Chapter - SWOT Analysis
France Food Industry SWOT
France Drink Industry SWOT
France Mass Grocery Retail Industry SWOT
Chapter - Business Environment
BMI's Core Global Industry Views
Table: Core Views
Western Europe Risk/Reward Ratings
Table: Western Europe Q113 Food & Drink Risk/Reward Sub-Factor Ratings (scores out of 10)
Table: Western Europe Q113 Food & Drink Risk/Reward Ratings
France's Food & Drink Risk/Reward Ratings
Macroeconomic Outlook
Table: Economic Activity
Chapter - Industry Forecast Scenario
Consumer Outlook
Food
Food Consumption
Table: Food Consumption Indicators – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
Prepared Food/Canned Food
Table: Canned Food Value/Volume Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
Confectionery
Table: Confectionery Value/Volume Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
Drink
Hot Drinks
Table: Hot Drink Value Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts
Soft Drinks
Table: Soft Drinks Value/Volume Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
Alcoholic Drinks
Table: Alcoholic Drinks Value/Volume Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
Mass Grocery Retail
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
Table: Grocery Retail Sales By Format
Trade
Table: Food & Drink Trade Indicators – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
Chapter - Food
Key Industry Trends And Developments
Peltz Plots Changes At Danone
Lactalis Acquires Slovenian Dairy
Bongrain Points To Challenge Of Innovation
Campbell Diversifies For Growth In France
Doux Files For Receivership
French Food Sector Grew In 2011
Inward And Outward Investment Continues
Bonduel Demonstrates Emerging Market Appetite
Market Overview
Food Production
Prepared Food/Canned Food
Table: Frozen Fruit & Vegetables Volume Sales, Production & Trade – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
Table: Pasta Volume Sales, Production & Trade – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
Table: Meat Volume Sales, Production & Trade – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
Table: Fish Volume Sales, Production & Trade – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
Table: Oils & Fats Production & Trade – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
Table: Dairy Volume Sales, Production & Trade – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
Confectionery
Snack Foods
Table: Snack Foods Production & Trade – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
Trade
Organic Farming
Chapter - Drink
Key Industry Trends And Developments
Brand Builders Better Off Without Champagne?
French Government Proposes Beer Tax Hike
Bright Food Stretches Footprint Into French Wine Sector
Asian Demand Driving Rémy Cointreau
Energy Drinks Remain Controversial
Sobieski The Kind Of Asset Belvédère Needs To Sell
New Soft Drink Tax Likely To Have Long-Term Implications
Market Overview
Soft Drinks
Alcoholic Drinks
Beer
Wine
Spirits
Chapter - Mass Grocery Retail
Key Industry Trends And Developments
Carrefour Turnaround Beginning To Take Shape
Lidl Denies Reports Of Exit From Hard Discount Sector
Auchan Enters India
Casino Continues Move Away from Hypermarkets
Auchan Invests In Promising Tunisian Market
Casino's Outperformance Highlights EM Strength And Domestic Resilience
Leclerc Unveils Ambitions To Overtake Carrefour
Market Overview
Leading Players
Chapter - Competitive Landscape
Key Players
Table: Key Players In France's Food Sector
Table: Key Players In France's Drink Sector
Table: Key Players In France's Mass Grocery Retail Sector
Chapter - Company Monitor
Food
Groupe Danone
Nestlé France
Drink
LVMH Group (Moët Hennessy Louis Vuitton)
Pernod Ricard
Mass Grocery Retail
Carrefour
Groupe Auchan
Groupe Casino
Chapter - Demographic Outlook
Table: France's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (‘000)
Table: France's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
Table: France's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
Table: France's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
Chapter - Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
Weighting
Chapter - BMI Food & Drink Industry Glossary
Food & Drink
Mass Grocery Retail
Chapter - BMI Food & Drink Forecasting & Sourcing
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Sourcing
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