Hong Kong Food and Drink Report 2013

BMI View: Hong Kong is one of Asia Pacific's smallest consumer markets, with its population standing at just over the 7mn mark. Therefore, from a demographic standpoint, there are few attractions for consumer industry investors. Additionally, we expect the reversal in Hong Kong's booming property market to weigh on consumer purchasing power and curtail spending on higher value consumer goods. Generally speaking, most food and drink segments are highly mature, although consumers remain interested in novelty and convenience, which still provides opportunities for food and drink companies.

Headline Industry Data (local currency)

?? 2013 per capita food consumption growth = +2.10%; forecast compound annual growth rate (CAGR) to 2017 = +1.88

%?? 2013 alcoholic drinks sales growth = +5.10%; forecast CAGR to 2017 = +4.42

%?? 2013 soft drinks sales growth = +5.88%; forecast CAGR to 2017 = +4.57

%?? 2013 mass grocery retail sales growth = +5.93%; forecast CAGR to 2017 = +5.04

%Key Trends And Developments

Dairy Farm International Post Strong H112 Results: Hong Kong-based retail company Dairy Farm International posted strong results for the first half of its financial year. The company's sales for the sixmonth period ended June 30 2012 increased by 10% to US$5.5bn compared to H111, while its underlying profit was up 12% to US$243mn. Dairy Farm's strong results were driven by some small acquisitions it made during the six months, including a 70% share in a Cambodia-based supermarket chain and a 50 %stake in Philippines-based retailer Rustan's.

Hong Kong-Listed Brewer Up for Sale: In February 2012, Chinese brewers expressed interest in acquiring the beer assets of Kingway Brewery, which is listed in Hong Kong. Potential buyers included Tsingtao, Beijing Yanjing Brewery (which had emerged as a front runner, but abandoned the plan over price disagreements), Guangzhou Zhujiang Brewery, as well as CR Snow, which is a joint venture between China Resources Enterprise and SABMiller. In September 2012, Kingway was reportedly still in talks with potential partners. The company is mulling a sale of all or part of its business as it struggles to generate profits amid a highly competitive environment.

Risks To Outlook

Political Risks: While we believe Hong Kong will remain at or near the top of our political risk ratings table over the next decade, a number of risks could lead to rising political instability. The sluggish pace of democratic reforms will continue to cause anger among pro-democracy supporters, and there is the potential for large-scale public protests. A lack of affordable housing and rising income inequality also could pose threats to social stability.

Economic Risks: While a high degree of financial stability helps to counterbalance Hong Kong's longterm economic weaknesses, namely its high dependence on trade and over-reliance on the export of manufactured goods, Hong Kong is at risk of a larger-than-expected decline in the domestic property market that would result in a sharp fall in domestic consumer confidence and spending. A sharper-thananticipated cooling of the Chinese economy as tighter credit conditions start to take effect could also weigh on domestic consumer sentiment given the key trading relationship between the two countries.

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