Malaysia Retail Report Q4 2012
Report description
The Malaysian Retail Report examines the long-term potential of the local consumer market, but flags short-term concerns about the impact on Malaysia’s economic outlook of growing concerns over the outlook for employment in the export sector.
The report examines how best to maximise returns in the Malaysian retail market while minimising investment risk, and also explores the impact of cooling global demand on the Malaysian consumer as well as on the ability of producers and exporters to realise returns in the short term. The report also analyses the growth and risk management strategies being employed by the leading players in the Malaysian retail sector, as they seek to maximise the growth opportunities offered by the local market.
Malaysia comes third (out of seven) in BMI’s Asia Retail risk/reward ratings, although it outperforms slightly for risk.
Among all retail categories, Mass Grocery Retail (MGR) will be the outperformer through to 2016 in growth terms, with sales forecast to increase by 46.6% between 2012 and 2016, from US$13.63bn to US$19.98bn as a growing affluent middle- and upper-income consumer base embraces the concept. In the competitive arena, BMI sees upside potential in the potential easing of hypermarket regulations.
Over the last quarter, BMI has revised the following forecasts/views:
• Recent economic data suggests that Malaysia's better-than-expected real GDP growth reading of 5.2% year-on-year (y-o-y) in Q411 could be a one-off. Leading economic indicators continue to support BMI’s view that the consensus forecast for real GDP growth of 4.1% for 2012 remains too optimistic. Accordingly, we are sticking to our forecast for real GDP growth to come in at a much more subdued 3.3% this year.
• Indicators for private consumption published by Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) show that households are beginning to cut back on spending aggressively. Growth in consumer goods imports slowed for the fourth consecutive month from 33.1% y-o-y in September to 19.9% in December, and growth in outstanding credit card balances has also remained on a steady downtrend since January 2011. We expect this trend to continue.
Table of contents
Chapter 1 - Executive Summary
Chapter 2 - SWOT Analysis
Malaysia Retail Business Environment SWOT
Malaysia Political SWOT
Malaysia Economic SWOT
Chapter 3 - Market Overview
Key Players
Current Trends
Chapter 4 - Industry Forecast Scenario
Consumer Outlook
Retail Growth Outlook
Table: Malaysia Retail Sales Indicators,
Table: Retail Sales Breakdown By Key Segment, f
Chapter 5 - Macroeconomic Outlook
Table: MalaysiaEconomic Activity,
Chapter 6 - Regional Retail Outlook
Asia Pacific Retail Outlook
Table: Asia Pacific Retail Sales,(US$bn)
Table: Share Of Regional Retail Sales,(%)
Table: Asia Pacific Food Consumption,(US$bn)
Table: Asia Pacific Macroeconomic Outlook,
Chapter 7 - Risk/Reward Ratings
Asia Pacific Risk/Reward Ratings
Table: Asia Pacific Retail Risk/Reward Ratings
Malaysia’s Retail Rating
Limits To Potential Returns
Risks To Realisation Of Returns
Chapter 8 - Mass Grocery Retail
Malaysia Mass Grocery Retail Industry SWOT
Market Overview
Table: Structure Of Malaysia’s MGR Market – Estimated Number Of Outlets,
Table: Structure Of Malaysia’s MGR Market – Sales By Format,(US$bn)
Table: Structure Of Malaysia’s MGR Market – Sales By Format,(MYRbn)
Table: Average Sales Per Outlet by Forma,
Table: Grocery Retail Sales By Type,And(%)
Industry Forecast Scenario
Table: MGR Sales By Format,
Industry Developments
Chapter 9 - Consumer Electronics
Malaysia Consumer Electronics Market SWOT
Malaysia Electronics Industry SWOT
Market Overview
Computers
Table: Computers Sales,
AV
Table: AV: Sales,
Mobile Handsets
Table: Mobile Communications,
Industry Forecast Scenario
Table: Consumer Electronics Overview,
Industry Developments
Chapter 10 - Automotives
Malaysia Autos SWOT
Market Overview
Table: Malaysian Passenger Vehicle Sales,
Industry Forecast Scenario
Production
Table: Malaysia Autos Production, Sales And Car Ownership Rates
Sales
Table: Malaysia Autos Sales Forecast
Chapter 11 - Passenger Cars – Forecast & Analysis
Table: Sales Malaysia Passenger Car Forecast,
Table: Malaysia – Passenger Car Sales By Model
Chapter 12 - Demographic Outlook
Table: Malaysia's Population By Age Group,(')
Table: Malaysia's Population By Age Group,(% of total)
Table: alaysia's Key Population Ratios,
Table: Malaysia's Rural And Urban Population,
Chapter 13 - BMI Methodology
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Sources
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