Netherlands Food and DrinkReport Q4 2012
Report description
We expect household consumption to remain extremely weak in the months ahead. European banks remain heavily exposed to their countries' sovereign debt, and we expect ongoing balance sheet repair to limit credit extension in the Netherlands. Combined with weaker domestic economic activity that is set to weigh on the Dutch labour market (we forecast unemployment at 6.5% by end-2012) consumer credit demand is also set to remain weak. Recent data from the Dutch Central Bureau of Statistics show that household disposable income is down 0.4% from 2010, and we expect this will continue to weigh on Dutch private consumption growth. Combined with still-declining house prices, which create a negative wealth effect, this is set to keep already weak consumer confidence very low in the months ahead.
Headline Industry Data (local currency): ?? 2012 per capita food consumption: +0.5%; forecast to 2016 = +14.7% ?? 2012 alcoholic drink sales: +0.7%; forecast to 2016 = +6.9% ?? 2012 soft drink sales: +0.8%; forecast to 2016 = +12.7% ?? 2012 mass grocery retail sales: +2.8%; forecast to 2016 = +29.3%
Key Industry Trends & Developments Unilever Continues Exit From Frozen Foods: In July 2012, consumer goods giant Unilever announced the sale of its North American frozen meals business to local food producer ConAgra for US$265mn. The move continues Unilever's movement away from frozen food, with the firm having previously sold its European assets in this sector. The move also continues the drive away from products that are exposed to growth in private labels, with Unilever keen to focus on sectors for which its brand building expertise can be put to best use.
Ahold Margins Under Pressure: As previously noted by BMI, an increase in competitive pressure in the Netherlands' retail sector is affecting the margins of the country's largest retailer, Ahold. For the first half of 2012 the firm reported that its underlying operating margins came in at 4.3%, compared with 4.5% in the same period of 2011. Underlying operating margins in the Dutch market fell from 6.2% to 5.4%, representing a fairly dramatic decline.
Key Risks To Outlook Eurozone Debt Crisis: The ongoing eurozone crisis poses a threat to investor confidence throughout the entire region. The risk of a major sovereign credit event in Europe would further damage confidence, Netherlands Food & Drink Report Q4 2012 © Business Monitor International Ltd Page 8 putting significant pressure on export demand and, therefore, on the Netherlands’ economic growth and consumption. While we expect Dutch sovereign bond yields to remain relatively insulated from wider market jitters, a continued deterioration in the regional crisis could drag on economic growth.
Table of contents
Chapter 1 - BMI Industry View
Chapter 2 - SWOT Analysis
Netherlands Food Industry SWOT
Netherlands Drink Industry SWOT
Netherlands Mass Grocery Retail Industry SWOT
Chapter 3 - Business Environment
BMI’s Core Global Industry Views
Table: Core Views
Western Europe Risk/Reward Ratings
Table: Western Europe Food & Drink Risk/Reward Ratings Subcategories, Q (scores out of )
Table: Western Europe Food & Drink Risk/Reward Ratings, Q
Netherlands Food & Drink Risk/Reward Rating
Macroeconomic Outlook
Table: Economic Activity, -
Chapter 4 - Industry Forecast Scenario
Consumer Outlook
Food
Food Consumption
Table: Food Consumption Indicators – Historical Data & Forecasts , -
Processed Meat
Table: Meat Production & Trade, -
Oils & Fats
Oils And Fats Volume Sales Production & Trade, -
Jam
Table: Jams & Jellies Volume Sales Production & Trade, -
Confectionery
Table: Confectionery Value Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts, -
Drink
Soft Drinks And Bottled Water
Table: Soft Drink Value/Volume Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts, -
Alcoholic Drinks
Table: Alcoholic Drinks Value/Volume Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts, -
Mass Grocery Retail
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales By Format – Historical Data & Forecasts, -
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Breakdown By Format
Trade
Table: Trade Indicators – Historical Data & Forecasts, -
Chapter 5 - Food
Key Industry Trends And Developments
Unilever Continues Frozen Exit
Douwe Egberts To List On Dutch Exchange
Vion’s Operating Results Down % In
Unilever Posts Lacklustre Results; Questions Raised About Strategy
Unilever May Eventually Leave Food Sector (But Not Yet)
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Halloren Looks To Steenland For Chocolate Growth
Heinz Centralises European Supply Chain In The Netherlands
Unilever Restructures To Focus On Emerging Markets
Market Overview
Food
Dairy
Chapter 6 - Drink
Key Industry Trends & Developments
ThaiBev's Bid For F&N Could Thwart Heineken
Heineken Has Steady , But Mexico Not Yet Delivering
Heineken Misses Opportunity With Schincariol
Market Overview
Soft Drinks And Bottled Water
Alcoholic Drinks
Chapter 7 - Mass Grocery Retail
Key Industry Trends And Developments
Ahold Margins Under Pressure
Dutch Retailers Face Sales Tax, Excise Duties Increases
EC Clears Way For Ahold To Purchase bolcom
Ahold Reveals Plans For German Entry With Convenience Stores
Ahold Can Make Progress In Belgium With Low-Price Model
Market Overview
Table: Structure Of Mass Grocery Retail Market By Estimated Number Of Outlets, -
Table: Annual Average Sales Per Outlet By Format –
Chapter 8 - Competitive Landscape
Table: Key Players In The Dutch Food Sector
Table: Key Players In The Dutch Drink Sector
Table: Key Players In The Dutch Mass Grocery Retail Sector
Chapter 9 - Company Monitor
Food
Unilever
FrieslandCampina
Drink
Heineken International
Mass Grocery Retail
Ahold
Chapter 10 - Country Snapshot
Table: The Netherlands’ Population By Age Group, - (‘)
Table: The Netherlands’ Population By Age Group, - (% of total)
Table: The Netherlands’ Key Population Ratios, -
Table: The Netherlands’ Rural And Urban Population, -
Chapter 11 - Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
Table: Rewards
Table: Risks
Weighting
Table: Weighting
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Chapter 12 - BMI Food & Drink Industry Glossary
Food & Drink
Mass Grocery Retail
Chapter 13 - BMI Food & Drink Forecasting & Sourcing
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Sourcing
Related market research by market
Netherlands (in Europe)
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