Seasonal Chocolate - US - August 2010
Report description
About this report
During 2005-10, seasonal chocolate sales increased 16.3% to become a sweet and sizeable $4.6 billion market (estimated 2010 sales figures). Positioned as a traditional indulgence, the category appears not to have been adversely affected by the wavering economy of the past few years.
However, with concern brewing over obesity (particularly among children) and overall better nutrition, seasonal chocolate may be a tradition some consumers decide to break from in lieu of healthier options. This report discusses the ramifications of this issue throughout, while also covering a range of other topics, including:
* Sales performance of seasonal chocolate by segment and retail channel, as well as the forecast for the market through 2015
* Insight into sales trends, as well as consumer purchase behavior surrounding individual holidays and which ones are most ripe for innovation
* Investigation of the most popular brands and their trended sales performance
* Examination of competitive threats and how seasonal chocolate marketers can contend
* The effectiveness of recent advertising and emerging social media trends that are shaping the seasonal chocolate market
* Analysis of the most and least avid seasonal chocolate consumers by key demographics including gender, age, income and race/Hispanic origin
* Insight into kids’ and teens’ attitudes and purchase behaviors.
Table of contents
Scope and Themes
What you need to know
Definition
Data sources
Sales data
Consumer survey data
Advertising clips
Abbreviations and terms
Abbreviations
Terms
Executive Summary
The segment faces challenges from other innovations
Easter and Christmas remain strong for chocolate
Supercenters and warehouse clubs are leading seasonal chocolate retailers
Economic factors still weigh heavy on consumers and the industry
The Hershey Co. remains the leading manufacturer
Innovation rebounds as the economy shows improvement
Advertising and promotions are moving away from children
Who is eating seasonal chocolate
When most purchases are made and consumers’ on-hand inventory
Purchase locales and holiday-specific purchase volume/spend
What matters most when buying seasonal chocolate
Market Size and Forecast
Key points
Market adjusts to recession
A new marketing direction will carry the category forward
Sales and forecast of seasonal chocolate
Figure 2: Total U.S. retail sales of seasonal chocolate, at current prices, 2005-15
Figure 3: Total U.S. retail sales of seasonal chocolate, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2005-15
Walmart sales
Market Drivers
Key points
Consumer economic factors still wobbly
Figure 4: Consumer sentiment index, bi-monthly, March 2007-June 2010
Figure 5: Real Disposable Personal Income, January 2007-May 2010
Business economies struggle
Figure 6: Gross Domestic Product (GDP), by quarter, Q1 2007-Q1 2010
Commodity inputs: Sugar
Commodity inputs: Cocoa
Figure 7: Cocoa monthly averages of daily prices in $ per ton
Population factors weigh heavy
On the bright side, kid demographics
Figure 8: U.S. population projections of kids, by age, 2005-15
Figure 9: Population size and share, among kids 6-11, 2005-15
Figure 10: Sweet snack usage frequency, among kids 6-11, March 2010
On the dark side, the war on obesity
Figure 11: States with the highest obesity rates, based on 2007-09 combined data
Competitive Context
Key points
Fruit gifts make headway
Edible Arrangements
Bouquet of Fruits
Nutrition bars in the right place
In-home shopping alternatives
Figure 12: Internet and phone/mail order purchases, by gender, April 2007-June 2008
Segment Performance
Key points
Traditions don’t slide with the economy
Sales of seasonal chocolate in FDMx
Figure 13: FDMx sales of seasonal chocolate, by segment, 2008-10
Segment Performance—Easter Chocolate
Key points
Easter shows strongest performance
Sales and forecast of Easter chocolate
Figure 14: FDMx sales of Easter chocolate, 2005-15
Segment Performance—Christmas Chocolate
Key points
Manufacturers get a grip on Christmas
Sales and forecast of Christmas chocolate
Figure 15: FDMx sales and forecast of Christmas chocolate, at current prices, 2005-15
Segment Performance—Valentine’s Day Chocolate
Key points
Chocolate Valentine’s traditions may be on the wane
Sales and forecast of Valentine’s Day chocolate
Figure 16: FDMx sales and forecast of Valentine’s Day chocolate, at current prices, 2005-15
Segment Performance—Halloween Chocolate
Key points
Halloween doesn’t always lead to chocolate
Sales and forecast of Halloween chocolate
Figure 17: FDMx sales and forecast of Halloween chocolate, at current prices, 2005-15
Segment Performance—Other Seasonal Chocolate
Key points
Other seasonal chocolate sales expected to coast
Sales and forecast of other seasonal chocolate
Figure 18: FDMx sales and forecast of other seasonal chocolate, at current prices, 2005-15
Retail Channels
Overview
Sales of seasonal chocolate, by channel
Figure 19: Total U.S. sales of seasonal chocolate, by channel, 2008 and 2010
Sales by retail channel, 2005-10
Supercenters and warehouse clubs’ sales of seasonal chocolate
Figure 20: Supercenters and warehouse clubs’ sales of seasonal chocolate, at current prices, 2005-10
Supermarket/food stores’ sales of seasonal chocolate
Figure 21: Supermarket/food stores’ sales of seasonal chocolate, at current prices, 2005-10
Confectionery stores’ sales of seasonal chocolate
Figure 22: Confectionery stores’ sales of seasonal chocolate, at current prices, 2005-10
Other channels’ sales of seasonal chocolate
Figure 23: Other channels’ sales of seasonal chocolate, at current prices, 2005-10
Leading Companies
Key points
Five suppliers dominate the market
Private label was not a savior
FDMx sales of seasonal chocolate by manufacturer
Figure 24: Manufacturer FDMx sales of seasonal chocolate in the U.S., 2009 and 2010
Brand Share—Easter Chocolate
Key points
Popular brands all the more popular for Easter
Manufacturer and brand sales of Easter chocolate
Figure 25: Selected FDMx brand sales of Easter chocolate, 2009 and 2010
Brand Share—Christmas Chocolate
Key points
Hershey is on top of Christmas
Private label receives the gift of positive sales
Manufacturer and brand sales of Christmas chocolate
Figure 26: Selected FDMx brand sales of Christmas chocolate, 2009 and 2010
Brand Share—Valentine’s Day Chocolate
Key points
Valentine’s Day fared the worst of all the chocolate holidays
No thanks to Martha Stewart
Manufacturer and brand sales of Valentine’s Day chocolate
Figure 27: Selected FDMx brand sales of Valentine’s Day chocolate, 2009 and 2010
Brand Share—Halloween Chocolate
Key points
Halloween turned out to be a trick rather than a treat
Nothing but the best for little goblins
Manufacturer and brand sales of Halloween chocolate
Figure 28: Selected FDMx brand sales of Halloween chocolate, 2009 and 2010
Brand Share—Other Seasonal Chocolate
Key points
Economy leads to a narrower focus
Manufacturer and brand sales of other seasonal chocolate
Figure 29: Selected FDMx brand sales of other seasonal chocolate, 2009 and 2010
Brand Qualities
The Hershey Co.—exemplifying corporate caring
Influence on the category
Character and celebrity tie-ins give chocolate some personality
Influence on the category
Innovations and Innovators
Key points
Seasonal chocolate product launches on the upswing
Figure 30: New seasonal chocolate product launches, 2005-10*
Leading brands
The Hershey Co.
Godiva
R.M. Palmer Co.
Mars
Top seasonal chocolate product launches, by company/brand, 2005-10
Figure 31: Top seasonal chocolate product launches, by company/brand, 2005-10*
Private label
Seasonal chocolate product launches, by private label, 2005-10
Figure 32: Seasonal chocolate product launches, by private label, 2005-10*
Kosher tops label claims for seasonal chocolate product launches
Seasonal chocolate product launches, by label claim, 2005-10
Figure 33: Seasonal chocolate product launches, by label claim, 2005-10*
Advertising and Promotion
Key points
Ad spending in 2009-10
Advertising minus children
Cause marketing
Scouring the calendar for untapped seasons and holidays
Main holiday hooks
Designed to bring a smile
Figure 34: The Hershey Co./Hershey’s Kisses Christmas television ad, 2009
Figure 35: The Hershey Co./Reese’s Peanut Butter Cups Miniatures Easter television ad, 2010
One more reason to buy
Figure 36: The Hershey Co./Reese’s Peanut Butter Cups Miniatures Christmas television ad, 2009
Figure 37: Mars Inc./M&M’s Easter television ad, 2010
Emotional play
Figure 38: Russell Stover Candies Inc./Russell Stover Valentine’s Day television ad, 2010
Seasonal Chocolate Usage and Purchase Behavior
Key points
Usage of seasonal chocolate and non-chocolate candy
Figure 39: Purchase of seasonal chocolate and non-chocolate candy, by gender, April 2010
Figure 40: Purchase of seasonal chocolate and non-chocolate candy, by age, April 2010
Purchase behavior with seasonal chocolate
Figure 41: Purchase behavior with seasonal chocolate, by gender, April 2010
Figure 42: Purchase behavior with seasonal chocolate, by age, April 2010
Figure 43: Purchase behavior with seasonal chocolate, by household income, April 2010
Figure 44: Purchase volume shifts with seasonal chocolate in last year, by age, April 2010
Purchase Timeliness and Household Inventory
Key points
Household inventory of seasonal chocolate
Figure 45: Household inventory with seasonal chocolate, by age, April 2010
Holiday-specific time periods when seasonal chocolate is typically purchased
Figure 46: Time periods when seasonal chocolate is typically purchased, by gender, April 2010
Figure 47: Time periods when seasonal chocolate is typically purchased, by household income, April 2010
Reasons for buying seasonal chocolate after the holidays
Figure 48: Reasons for buying seasonal chocolate after holidays, by gender, April 2010
Purchase Locales, Volume, and Brand Preferences
Key points
Outlets where seasonal chocolate is typically purchased
Figure 49: Outlets where seasonal chocolate is typically purchased, by age, April 2010
Figure 50: Outlets where seasonal chocolate is typically purchased, by household income, April 2010
Changes in shopping habits/brand preferences in last year
Figure 51: Changes in shopping habits/brand preferences in last year, April 2010
Figure 52: Changes in shopping habits with seasonal chocolate in last year, by age, April 2010
Spend and volume of seasonal chocolate purchases
Figure 53: Number of packages purchased and amount spent on seasonal chocolate, April 2010
Figure 54: Mean number of packages purchased and amount spent on seasonal chocolate, by age, April 2010
What Matters Most When Buying Seasonal Chocolate
Key points
Buying priorities when shopping for others
Figure 55: Buying priorities when shopping for others, by age, April 2010
Buying priorities when shopping for self
Figure 56: Buying priorities when shopping for self, by gender, April 2010
Figure 57: Buying priorities when shopping for self, by age, April 2010
Kid and Teen Chocolate and Candy Usage
Key points
Kids and teens usage of chocolate and candy
Kids aged 6-11
Figure 58: Bars and other candy usage, among kids 6-11, by gender, November 2008-December 2009
Figure 59: Frequency of use of bars and other candy usage, among kids 6-11, by gender, November 2008-December 2009
Figure 60: Availability in household of bars and other candy usage, among kids 6-11, by gender, November 2008-December 2009
Teens aged 12-17
Figure 61: Chocolate and hard roll candy usage, among teens 12-17, by gender, November 2008-December 2009
Seasonal chocolate and non-chocolate candy usage and purchase behavior in HHs with kids
Figure 62: Purchase of seasonal chocolate and non-chocolate candy, by presence of children, April 2010
Figure 63: Purchases of seasonal chocolate for child(ren), April 2010
Figure 64: Changes in shopping habits with seasonal chocolate in last year, by presence of children, April 2010
Appendix: Other Useful Consumer Tables
Purchase of chocolate and non-chocolate seasonal candy
Figure 82: Purchase of seasonal chocolate and non-chocolate candy, by household income, April 2010
Purchase volume shifts
Figure 83: Purchase volume shifts with seasonal chocolate in last year, by household income, April 2010
Outlets where consumers buy seasonal chocolate
Figure 84: Outlets where seasonal chocolate is typically purchased, by gender, April 2010
Buying priorities when shopping for seasonal chocolate for others and self
Figure 85: Buying priorities when shopping for others, by gender, April 2010
Figure 86: Buying priorities when shopping for others, by household income, April 2010
Figure 87: Buying priorities when shopping for self, by household income, April 2010
Appendix: Trade Associations
What you need to know
Definition
Data sources
Sales data
Consumer survey data
Advertising clips
Abbreviations and terms
Abbreviations
Terms
Executive Summary
The segment faces challenges from other innovations
Easter and Christmas remain strong for chocolate
Supercenters and warehouse clubs are leading seasonal chocolate retailers
Economic factors still weigh heavy on consumers and the industry
The Hershey Co. remains the leading manufacturer
Innovation rebounds as the economy shows improvement
Advertising and promotions are moving away from children
Who is eating seasonal chocolate
When most purchases are made and consumers’ on-hand inventory
Purchase locales and holiday-specific purchase volume/spend
What matters most when buying seasonal chocolate
Market Size and Forecast
Key points
Market adjusts to recession
A new marketing direction will carry the category forward
Sales and forecast of seasonal chocolate
Figure 2: Total U.S. retail sales of seasonal chocolate, at current prices, 2005-15
Figure 3: Total U.S. retail sales of seasonal chocolate, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2005-15
Walmart sales
Market Drivers
Key points
Consumer economic factors still wobbly
Figure 4: Consumer sentiment index, bi-monthly, March 2007-June 2010
Figure 5: Real Disposable Personal Income, January 2007-May 2010
Business economies struggle
Figure 6: Gross Domestic Product (GDP), by quarter, Q1 2007-Q1 2010
Commodity inputs: Sugar
Commodity inputs: Cocoa
Figure 7: Cocoa monthly averages of daily prices in $ per ton
Population factors weigh heavy
On the bright side, kid demographics
Figure 8: U.S. population projections of kids, by age, 2005-15
Figure 9: Population size and share, among kids 6-11, 2005-15
Figure 10: Sweet snack usage frequency, among kids 6-11, March 2010
On the dark side, the war on obesity
Figure 11: States with the highest obesity rates, based on 2007-09 combined data
Competitive Context
Key points
Fruit gifts make headway
Edible Arrangements
Bouquet of Fruits
Nutrition bars in the right place
In-home shopping alternatives
Figure 12: Internet and phone/mail order purchases, by gender, April 2007-June 2008
Segment Performance
Key points
Traditions don’t slide with the economy
Sales of seasonal chocolate in FDMx
Figure 13: FDMx sales of seasonal chocolate, by segment, 2008-10
Segment Performance—Easter Chocolate
Key points
Easter shows strongest performance
Sales and forecast of Easter chocolate
Figure 14: FDMx sales of Easter chocolate, 2005-15
Segment Performance—Christmas Chocolate
Key points
Manufacturers get a grip on Christmas
Sales and forecast of Christmas chocolate
Figure 15: FDMx sales and forecast of Christmas chocolate, at current prices, 2005-15
Segment Performance—Valentine’s Day Chocolate
Key points
Chocolate Valentine’s traditions may be on the wane
Sales and forecast of Valentine’s Day chocolate
Figure 16: FDMx sales and forecast of Valentine’s Day chocolate, at current prices, 2005-15
Segment Performance—Halloween Chocolate
Key points
Halloween doesn’t always lead to chocolate
Sales and forecast of Halloween chocolate
Figure 17: FDMx sales and forecast of Halloween chocolate, at current prices, 2005-15
Segment Performance—Other Seasonal Chocolate
Key points
Other seasonal chocolate sales expected to coast
Sales and forecast of other seasonal chocolate
Figure 18: FDMx sales and forecast of other seasonal chocolate, at current prices, 2005-15
Retail Channels
Overview
Sales of seasonal chocolate, by channel
Figure 19: Total U.S. sales of seasonal chocolate, by channel, 2008 and 2010
Sales by retail channel, 2005-10
Supercenters and warehouse clubs’ sales of seasonal chocolate
Figure 20: Supercenters and warehouse clubs’ sales of seasonal chocolate, at current prices, 2005-10
Supermarket/food stores’ sales of seasonal chocolate
Figure 21: Supermarket/food stores’ sales of seasonal chocolate, at current prices, 2005-10
Confectionery stores’ sales of seasonal chocolate
Figure 22: Confectionery stores’ sales of seasonal chocolate, at current prices, 2005-10
Other channels’ sales of seasonal chocolate
Figure 23: Other channels’ sales of seasonal chocolate, at current prices, 2005-10
Leading Companies
Key points
Five suppliers dominate the market
Private label was not a savior
FDMx sales of seasonal chocolate by manufacturer
Figure 24: Manufacturer FDMx sales of seasonal chocolate in the U.S., 2009 and 2010
Brand Share—Easter Chocolate
Key points
Popular brands all the more popular for Easter
Manufacturer and brand sales of Easter chocolate
Figure 25: Selected FDMx brand sales of Easter chocolate, 2009 and 2010
Brand Share—Christmas Chocolate
Key points
Hershey is on top of Christmas
Private label receives the gift of positive sales
Manufacturer and brand sales of Christmas chocolate
Figure 26: Selected FDMx brand sales of Christmas chocolate, 2009 and 2010
Brand Share—Valentine’s Day Chocolate
Key points
Valentine’s Day fared the worst of all the chocolate holidays
No thanks to Martha Stewart
Manufacturer and brand sales of Valentine’s Day chocolate
Figure 27: Selected FDMx brand sales of Valentine’s Day chocolate, 2009 and 2010
Brand Share—Halloween Chocolate
Key points
Halloween turned out to be a trick rather than a treat
Nothing but the best for little goblins
Manufacturer and brand sales of Halloween chocolate
Figure 28: Selected FDMx brand sales of Halloween chocolate, 2009 and 2010
Brand Share—Other Seasonal Chocolate
Key points
Economy leads to a narrower focus
Manufacturer and brand sales of other seasonal chocolate
Figure 29: Selected FDMx brand sales of other seasonal chocolate, 2009 and 2010
Brand Qualities
The Hershey Co.—exemplifying corporate caring
Influence on the category
Character and celebrity tie-ins give chocolate some personality
Influence on the category
Innovations and Innovators
Key points
Seasonal chocolate product launches on the upswing
Figure 30: New seasonal chocolate product launches, 2005-10*
Leading brands
The Hershey Co.
Godiva
R.M. Palmer Co.
Mars
Top seasonal chocolate product launches, by company/brand, 2005-10
Figure 31: Top seasonal chocolate product launches, by company/brand, 2005-10*
Private label
Seasonal chocolate product launches, by private label, 2005-10
Figure 32: Seasonal chocolate product launches, by private label, 2005-10*
Kosher tops label claims for seasonal chocolate product launches
Seasonal chocolate product launches, by label claim, 2005-10
Figure 33: Seasonal chocolate product launches, by label claim, 2005-10*
Advertising and Promotion
Key points
Ad spending in 2009-10
Advertising minus children
Cause marketing
Scouring the calendar for untapped seasons and holidays
Main holiday hooks
Designed to bring a smile
Figure 34: The Hershey Co./Hershey’s Kisses Christmas television ad, 2009
Figure 35: The Hershey Co./Reese’s Peanut Butter Cups Miniatures Easter television ad, 2010
One more reason to buy
Figure 36: The Hershey Co./Reese’s Peanut Butter Cups Miniatures Christmas television ad, 2009
Figure 37: Mars Inc./M&M’s Easter television ad, 2010
Emotional play
Figure 38: Russell Stover Candies Inc./Russell Stover Valentine’s Day television ad, 2010
Seasonal Chocolate Usage and Purchase Behavior
Key points
Usage of seasonal chocolate and non-chocolate candy
Figure 39: Purchase of seasonal chocolate and non-chocolate candy, by gender, April 2010
Figure 40: Purchase of seasonal chocolate and non-chocolate candy, by age, April 2010
Purchase behavior with seasonal chocolate
Figure 41: Purchase behavior with seasonal chocolate, by gender, April 2010
Figure 42: Purchase behavior with seasonal chocolate, by age, April 2010
Figure 43: Purchase behavior with seasonal chocolate, by household income, April 2010
Figure 44: Purchase volume shifts with seasonal chocolate in last year, by age, April 2010
Purchase Timeliness and Household Inventory
Key points
Household inventory of seasonal chocolate
Figure 45: Household inventory with seasonal chocolate, by age, April 2010
Holiday-specific time periods when seasonal chocolate is typically purchased
Figure 46: Time periods when seasonal chocolate is typically purchased, by gender, April 2010
Figure 47: Time periods when seasonal chocolate is typically purchased, by household income, April 2010
Reasons for buying seasonal chocolate after the holidays
Figure 48: Reasons for buying seasonal chocolate after holidays, by gender, April 2010
Purchase Locales, Volume, and Brand Preferences
Key points
Outlets where seasonal chocolate is typically purchased
Figure 49: Outlets where seasonal chocolate is typically purchased, by age, April 2010
Figure 50: Outlets where seasonal chocolate is typically purchased, by household income, April 2010
Changes in shopping habits/brand preferences in last year
Figure 51: Changes in shopping habits/brand preferences in last year, April 2010
Figure 52: Changes in shopping habits with seasonal chocolate in last year, by age, April 2010
Spend and volume of seasonal chocolate purchases
Figure 53: Number of packages purchased and amount spent on seasonal chocolate, April 2010
Figure 54: Mean number of packages purchased and amount spent on seasonal chocolate, by age, April 2010
What Matters Most When Buying Seasonal Chocolate
Key points
Buying priorities when shopping for others
Figure 55: Buying priorities when shopping for others, by age, April 2010
Buying priorities when shopping for self
Figure 56: Buying priorities when shopping for self, by gender, April 2010
Figure 57: Buying priorities when shopping for self, by age, April 2010
Kid and Teen Chocolate and Candy Usage
Key points
Kids and teens usage of chocolate and candy
Kids aged 6-11
Figure 58: Bars and other candy usage, among kids 6-11, by gender, November 2008-December 2009
Figure 59: Frequency of use of bars and other candy usage, among kids 6-11, by gender, November 2008-December 2009
Figure 60: Availability in household of bars and other candy usage, among kids 6-11, by gender, November 2008-December 2009
Teens aged 12-17
Figure 61: Chocolate and hard roll candy usage, among teens 12-17, by gender, November 2008-December 2009
Seasonal chocolate and non-chocolate candy usage and purchase behavior in HHs with kids
Figure 62: Purchase of seasonal chocolate and non-chocolate candy, by presence of children, April 2010
Figure 63: Purchases of seasonal chocolate for child(ren), April 2010
Figure 64: Changes in shopping habits with seasonal chocolate in last year, by presence of children, April 2010
Appendix: Other Useful Consumer Tables
Purchase of chocolate and non-chocolate seasonal candy
Figure 82: Purchase of seasonal chocolate and non-chocolate candy, by household income, April 2010
Purchase volume shifts
Figure 83: Purchase volume shifts with seasonal chocolate in last year, by household income, April 2010
Outlets where consumers buy seasonal chocolate
Figure 84: Outlets where seasonal chocolate is typically purchased, by gender, April 2010
Buying priorities when shopping for seasonal chocolate for others and self
Figure 85: Buying priorities when shopping for others, by gender, April 2010
Figure 86: Buying priorities when shopping for others, by household income, April 2010
Figure 87: Buying priorities when shopping for self, by household income, April 2010
Appendix: Trade Associations
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