Singapore Retail Report Q4 2012
The Singapore Retail Report examines the long-term potential of the local consumer market, but flags short-term concerns about the impact on Singapore’s economic outlook of falling house prices. The report examines how best to maximise returns in the Singapore retail market while minimising investment risk, and also explores the impact of a hard landing in China as well as ongoing eurozone woes on the Singapore consumer and on the ability of producers and exporters to realise returns in the short term.
The report also analyses the growth and risk management strategies being employed by the leading players in the Singapore retail sector, as they seek to maximise the growth opportunities offered by the local market.
Singapore comes sixth (out of seven) in BMI’s Asia Retail risk/reward ratings, although it outperforms significantly for risk.
Among all retail categories, consumer electronics will be the outperformer through to 2016 in growth terms, with sales forecast to increase by 25.9% between 2012 and 2016, from US$4.18bn to US$5.26bn as demand grows for higher-end product categories such as smartphones, HD TV sets, Blu-ray DVD players and entertainment notebooks.
In the competitive arena, BMI sees upside potential in government initiatives that should put the semiconductor and electronics industries on a long-term path to renewed viability.
Over the last quarter, BMI has revised the following forecasts/views:
?? BMI retains its full-year growth outlook of 2.6% for Singapore. Although the country allayed fears of a sharp slowdown in Q112, posting above-consensus 9.9% quarter-on-quarter (q-o-q) growth, year-on-year (y-o-y) growth was considerably more muted at 1.6%. While we acknowledge that Q112's 9.9% q-o-q print indicates that the economy does retain some momentum and will now avoid a technical recession, we point to the 1.6% y-o-y figure to underscore the point that a longer-term slowdown is still in progress.
?? BMI expects private consumption to continue to support the overall economy with a 5.3% expansion in 2012 as real wages get a boost and inflation moderates. However, we believe that the property sector is at a major inflection point where a negative wealth effect will begin to set in, putting a damper on consumer sentiment in a country where 87% of Singaporeans own their homes. Nevertheless, we forecast that private consumption will grow from its current 38.6% proportion of the economy to 48.1% by 2021.
Table of contents
Chapter 1 - Executive Summary
Chapter 2 - SWOT Analysis
Singapore Retail Business Environment SWOT
Singapore Political SWOT
Singapore Economic SWOT
Chapter 3 - Market Overview
Chapter 4 - Industry Forecast Scenario
Retail Growth Outlook
Table: Singapore’s Retail Sales Indicators,
Table: Singapore’s Retail Sales Breakdown By Key Segment, f
Table: SingaporeEconomic Activity,
Chapter 5 - Regional Retail Outlook
Asia Pacific Retail Outlook
Table: Asia Pacific Retail Sales,(US$bn)
Table: Share Of Regional Retail Sales,(%)
Table: Asia Pacific Food Consumption,(US$bn)
Table: Asia Pacific Macroeconomic Outlook,
Chapter 6 - Risk/Reward Ratings
Asia Pacific Risk/Reward Ratings
Table: Asia Pacific Retail Risk/Reward Ratings
Singapore’s Retail Rating
Limits Of Potential Returns
Risks To Realisation Of Returns
Chapter 7 - Mass Grocery Retail
Singapore Mass Grocery Retail Industry SWOT
Table: Structure Of Mass Grocery Retail Market By Estimated Number Of Outlets
Table: Structure Of Mass Grocery Retail Market By Value (US$bn)
Table: Structure Of Mass Grocery Retail Market By Value (SGDbn)
Table: Estimated Average Sales Per Outlet By Format,
Table: Grocery Retail Sales By Format – Historical Data & Forecasts
Table: Singapore Mass Grocery Retail Indicators (US$bn)Historical Data & Forecasts By Format,
Chapter 8 - Consumer Electronics
Singapore Consumer Electronics Market SWOT
Singapore Electronics Industry SWOT
Table: Computers: Demand,
Table: AV: Demand,
Table: Mobile Handsets: Demand,
Table: Consumer Electronics Overview,
Chapter 9 - Automotives
Singapore Automotives SWOT
Table: Singapore – TopNew Vehicle Registrations By Company, M
Table: Registered Vehicles – Historical Data & Forecasts,(CBUs)
Chapter 10 - Demographic Data
Table: Singapore's Population By Age Group,(')
Table: Singapore's Population By Age Group,(% of total)
Table: ngapore's Key Population Ratios,
Table: Singapore's Rural And Urban Population,
Chapter 11 - BMI Methodology
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
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