Thailand Food and Drink Report Q3 2012
Report description
Cooling external demand and deteriorating global economic conditions would inevitably take their toll on consumer confidence in the near future. Moreover, as uncertainties over the outlook for employment in export-related sectors continue to weigh on sentiment and prompt households to cut back on spending, we believe private consumption growth should remain relatively muted over the coming quarters. In the longer term, the positives of a massive youth population, strong economic growth and rising incomes will remain major draws for foreign consumer goods investors. This potential will continue to attract the sights of consumer players such as Meiji Holdings, Fraser and Neave and Mai Tan, which should instil greater dynamism to the sector going forward. Headline Industry Data (local currency) ?? 2012 food consumption growth = +4.1%; compound annual growth rate (CAGR) forecast to 2016 = +5.0% ?? 2012 soft drinks value sales growth = +7.0%; CAGR forecast to 2016 = +7.1% ?? 2012 alcoholic drinks value sales growth = +4.9%; CAGR forecast to 2016 = +4.3% ?? 2012 mass grocery retail sales growth = +5.6%; CAGR forecast to 2016 = +5.1% Key Industry Trends Pursuing Growth Beyond Thailand: Thai food company Charoen Pokphand Foods (CP Foods) is reportedly preparing a GBP2.5bn (US$4bn) bid for fish finger manufacturer Birds Eye, a part of frozen food group Iglo. The first round bids have also been submitted by private equity investment firms Blackstone and BC Partners, although reports suggest that CP Foods is likely to acquire Birds Eye. Moreover, CP Foods has recently acquired a 74.18% stake in Vietnam-based feed business and agribusiness services firm CP Pokphand, further bearing out its overseas expansionary ambitions.
Japanese ingredients producer Ajinomoto recently announced that it has set up a sales company in Bangladesh in August to sell seasonings and processed foods to local consumers. This investment forms part of Ajinomoto’s broader strategy of growing its footprint across international markets with a particular focus on emerging markets (EMs) in the Middle East, Africa and South Asia.
Tesco’s Impressive Debut Reflects Investor Confidence In Thai Retail – In Thailand’s biggest initial public offering (IPO) since Rayong Refinery ’s US$710mn listing in 2006, UK mass grocery retail (MGR) giant Tesco ’s property fund surged by more than 10% on its trading debut on March 19 2012, allowing it to raise capital funds of around THB18.4bn (US$600mn). Tesco’s strong debut performance comes against the backdrop of a softened demand environment, and our broadly cautious outlook on Thai equities, and these headwinds have certainly not quelled investors’ desire to jump on the Thai retail bandwagon. The dynamics of rising incomes, higher urbanisation and the rapid emergence of sector competition underpin our bright retail outlook for Thailand. Clearly, Tesco’s debut showing is a strong signal of investor confidence in its ability to ride on Thailand’s retail growth story and consequently enjoy robust growth prospects.
Table of contents
Chapter 1 - BMI Industry View
Chapter 2 - SWOT Analysis
Thailand Food Industry SWOT
Thailand Drink Industry SWOT
Thailand Mass Grocery Retail Industry SWOT
Chapter 3 - Business Environment
BMI’s Core Global Industry Views
Table: Core Views
Asia Pacific Risk/Reward Ratings
Table: Asia Pacific Food & Drink Risk/Reward Ratings, Q
Thailand Food And Drink Risk/Reward Ratings
Macroeconomic Outlook
Table: Economic Activity
Chapter 4 - Industry Forecast Scenario
Consumer Outlook
Food
Food Consumption
Table: Food Consumption Indicators – Historical Data & Forecasts
Canned Food
Table: Canned Food Value/Volume Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts
Confectionery
Table: Confectionery Value/Volume Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts
Trade
Table: Food & Drink Trade Indicators – Historical Data & Forecasts
Drink
Alcoholic Drinks
Table: Thailand Alcoholic DrinksValue/Volume Sales Historical Data & Forecasts
Table: Beer
Soft Drinks
Table: Soft Drinks Value/Volume Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts
Hot Drinks
Table: Hot Drinks Value Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts
Mass Grocery Retail
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales By Format – Historical Data & Forecasts
Chapter 5 - Food
Key Industry Trends And Developments
Pursuing Growth Beyond Thailand
Food Companies Pushing Deeper Into Thailand
Rice Exports Likely To Fall In / Despite Better Crop
Market Overview
Agriculture
Organics
Food Processing
Trade
Dairy
Chapter 6 - Drink
Key Industry Trends And Developments
Investments To Intensify In Soft Drinks Sector
Looking Forward To NonCarbonates Outperformance
Brewers Building Regional Presence Across Thailand
Market Overview
Alcoholic Drinks
Soft Drinks
Chapter 7 - Mass Grocery Retail
Key Industry Trends And Developments
Tesco’s Impressive Debut Reflects Investor Confidence In Thai Retail
Embarking On An Expansionary Wave
PriceCutting Not A Practical Strategy For The Hypermarket Duo
Market Overview
Table: Structure Of Mass Grocery Retail Market By Estimated Number Of Outlets
Table: Structure Of Mass Grocery Retail Market – Sales Value By Format (US$bn)
Table: Structure Of Mass Grocery Retail Market – Sales Value By Format (THBbn)
Table: Average Sales Per Outlet By Format –
Table: Grocery Retail Sales By Format
Chapter 8 - Competitive Landscape
Key Players
Table: Key Players In Thailand’s Food Sector
Table: Key Players In Thailand’s Drink Sector
Table: Key Players In Thailand’s Mass Grocery Retail Sector
Chapter 9 - Company Monitor
Food
Chokchai
Charoen Pokphand Foods (CPF)
Thai President Foods
Thai Union Frozen Products
Drink
Thai Asia Pacific Brewery (Thai APB)
Thai Beverages Plc (ThaiBev)
Singha Corporation (formerly Boon Rawd Brewery)
Mass Grocery Retail
CP All Ltd
Siam FamilyMart
Tesco Lotus
Central Food Retail Company Ltd (CFR)
Big C Supercentre
Chapter 10 - Demographic Outlook
Table: Thailand's Population By Age Group,(')
Table: Thailand's Population By Age Group,(% of total)
Table: Thailand's Key Population Ratios,
Table: Thailand's Rural And Urban Population,
Chapter 11 - Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
Table: Rewards
Table: Risks
Weighting
Table: Weighting
Chapter 12 - BMI Food & Drink Industry Glossary
Food &rink
Mass Grocery Retail
Chapter 13 - BMI Food & Drink Forecasting & Sourcing
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Sourcing
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