The cultivated area under pepper in India has risen 30% in one year to 238,000 hectares. Since pepper harvesting starts after three years, production will shoot up in three years from the current 69,000 tonnes by about 20,000 tonnes. Production is likewise increasing in most producing countries. This will have a predictable downward effect on prices.

This estimate of +20,000 tonnes is after discounting the result of the quick wilt disease, for which there is no cure.

Indian farmers' cost is US$0.73 per Kg., and price realisation is US$2.80 to US$3.00 per kg.

By Navroz Havewala