Blog: Katy AskewEU outlook mixed for dairy, meat sectors

Katy Askew | 22 January 2013

The EU is expected to lose some ground in its meat exports over the next ten years, while dairy exports are expected to rise by as much as one-third.

According to the European Commission's outlook to 2022, aggregate meat imports into the EU are forecast to grow by 5.2% over the next ten years, while exports are likely to decline by 6.8%. This will leave the EU a net exporter of pig and poultry meats, but Europe will become a net importer of all other meats.

In the near term, it seems that the European meat sector could be in for a bit of a tough time also. Over the next two years, the Commission predicted the EU meat market will contract by 2% due to the ongoing economic downturn. Adding to these troubles, the EU pork industry is faced with a further challenge in the form of the EU Sow Stall Ban that came into effect in January.

The outlook for dairy, on the other hand, seems more positive. Milk and dairy products are expected to receive a boost from continued growth in world demand, fuelled by changing taste preferences and a growing global population. According to the Commission, this export demand will sustain commodity prices in the face of an end to the EU milk quota, which expired in 2015.

The report predicts an increase in EU cheese exports of more than one third by 2022, based on sustained demand from main destinations of EU cheese (Russia, Middle East countries, the US). Skimmed milk powder exports are expected to increase by 30% by 2022, as a result of sustained demand from China, Algeria and Middle East countries.

The outlook, then, appears mixed for the EU dairy and meat industries.


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