BellRing Brands has lowered its long-term sales growth projection, partly citing increased competition in the RTD milk shake category.
The Premier Protein shakes and Dymatize protein powders business also pointed to a more subdued outlook for revenue growth in the new fiscal year and said adjusted EBITDA figures would likely be below 2025’s print.
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Presenting results this week for the year to 30 September, BellRing Brands’ president and CEO Darcy Davenport noted the pace at which the Missouri-based company’s sales have grown since it went public in 2019 – from $850m to end fiscal 2025 at $2.32bn. Premier Protein’s sales revenues, meanwhile, had “tripled”, she said.
“Since IPO, we have delivered a net sales CAGR of 18%, significantly ahead of our long-term revenue growth projection of 10-12% shared at the time of our listing,” Davenport told analysts on a follow-up call.
“There are multiple ways to achieve strong growth in our business. However, it becomes more difficult to grow at double-digit rates off a larger revenue base, and in the near term, we are expecting a more competitive environment.”
The long-term sales outlook has now been adjusted from low double digits to high single digits, or more precisely 7-9%, she added, and Premier Protein will be the key driver.
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By GlobalData“This assumes that Premier Protein, the number one market-share brand, will continue to grow relatively in line with the RTD category, while Dymatize slightly weighs down our growth rate,” Davenport explained.
Projections for the adjusted EBITDA margin remain unchanged at 18-20% over the long term, a level that “embeds higher levels of brand investment enabled by our cost savings agenda”, she said, adding: “These investments are designed to reinforce our brand strengths and position us for sustained profitable growth over the long term.”
In the 2025 financial year, group sales rose 16.1% to $2.32bn with a 14.7% increase in volume and 1.4% in price/mix. Premier Protein sales climbed 16.8%, driven by a 14.6% gain in volume and 2.2% in price/mix. Dymatize net sales were up 13.3%.
Adjusted EBITDA increased 9.4% to $481.6m.
Sales growth for 2026 is expected at 4-8%, corresponding to figures of $2.41-2.49bn. The adjusted EBITDA outlook has been set at $425-455m.
“At the midpoint, sales for the year are expected to be modestly below our long-term algorithm because of the softer first quarter, driven by specific items and near-term competitive dynamics,” Davenport said. “We expect performance to strengthen with the remainder of the year at the top-end of our algorithm.”
Similarly, the adjusted EBITDA margin for the new year is also likely to come in at the lower end of the longer-term range, “primarily due to significant commodity inflation and tariffs, along with the lagged revenue impact of increased brand investments”, she added.
CFO Paul Rode provided some insight into the margin pressures.
“Our adjusted EBITDA margin algorithm also now incorporates the impact of tariffs. As previously communicated, tariffs will begin to impact our P&L starting in fiscal 2026.
“While we have mitigated much of our tariff exposure, we do expect an ongoing annualised impact to our margins of approximately 120 basis points.”
More broadly, BellRing Brands expects to benefit from the increasing demand for better-for-you RTD shakes, which, Davenport said, are “one of the fastest-growing CPG categories, fuelled by consumer health and wellness trends, functional beverage preferences, and GLP-1 usage”.
The CEO continued: “Over time, we expect retailers to consolidate the shelf behind a handful of the best-performing brands and move them to more heavily trafficked aisles.
“We believe that mainstream appeal, high repeat rates, and execution capabilities will determine the long-term winners. Premier Protein is well-positioned to benefit from these developments and continue to lead the category.”
