Global use of antibiotics in livestock may rise by nearly 30% by 2040 compared with 2019, the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) has warned.
In a new assessment presented yesterday (3 June) at the FAO’s headquarters in Rome, the agency the trend risks worsening antimicrobial resistance (AMR), which it described as a “long-term threat” to food security, livestock output, economic welfare and human health.
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According to the report, global antimicrobial use (AMU) in livestock is projected to reach about 143,481 tonnes by 2040 under a “business-as-usual pathway”. The figure represents a 29.5% rise from 2019.
By 2040, Asia and the Pacific are projected to account for nearly 65% of global livestock antimicrobial use, followed by South America at about 19%. Africa’s overall share is expected to remain smaller but its growth rate is among the highest.
The report added that AMU in Northern America is projected to decline slightly and Europe to remain broadly stable, reflecting “stricter regulation” and a move away from routine prophylactic use.
It also introduced the livestock biomass conversion (LBC) method as a methodological advance to “strengthen the measurement” of antimicrobial use intensity (AMUI), aimed at improving transparency for benchmarking and tracking progress.
The report found changes in livestock biomass alone have limited effects on total antimicrobial volumes. Instead, “sustained reductions” in use intensity provide the main leverage and can more than offset growth in production.
A 30% reduction in AMUI delivers sizeable declines relative to BAU, while a 50% reduction – especially when combined with lower biomass growth – delivers the “deepest cuts”, with the use of antibiotics falling by more than half relative to the baseline pathway by 2040.
The report also highlighted that international organisations have called for restricting and progressively phasing out antimicrobial growth promoters (AGPs) in livestock production.
It acknowledged that AGPs can deliver short-term gains by improving growth and feed efficiency, especially where animal disease risks are high.
However, the FAO said the longer-term economic costs of resistance are likely to outweigh those benefits.
In one set of scenarios modelled, cumulative livestock production losses under a high-AMR pathway could reach about $318bn by 2040, compared with around $53bn under the most severe AGP phase-out case.
FAO assistant director-general and chief veterinarian Thanawat Tiensin said: “The costs of reducing unnecessary antimicrobial use are often immediate and concentrated, while the benefits of preserving antimicrobial effectiveness are long-term and widely shared.
“This is why antimicrobial effectiveness should be treated as a global public good, requiring better alignment between national and farm-level incentives and the global benefits of preserving its effectiveness, supported by investment that makes prevention feasible at scale.”
The FAO warned the economic impact of AMR can be slow to show up, a key reason why action can be “delayed” even when the long-term case for intervention is strong. Restrictions on AGPs, by contrast, tend to create an immediate and highly visible shock for producers, with “partial recovery” as alternatives are adopted and scaled.
To bridge that gap, the agency urged an “integrated policy” that combine regulation with economic incentives and transitional support. It highlighted investment in veterinary services, surveillance and diagnostics, and pointed to vaccination, biosecurity and improved husbandry.
The report estimated at least $28.4bn in transitional investment would be needed to cover the short-term costs of action.
