Sugar prices have fallen to a four-week low on signs of a supply surplus from the world’s largest grower, Brazil.

Raw sugar for March delivery dropped 1.6% to close at 19.79 cents per pound yesterday (18 October) on the ICE Futures exchange in New York.

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Output in Brazil, which accounts for over 40% of all exports, is expected to climb to 538m metric tonnes next season, compared to 512m in the previous year, Jonathan Kingsman, founder of Kingsman SA, told attendees at the biennial Sugar Week conference in London.

The effects of the Brazilian weather as well as the country’s biofuel policy have all lead to uncertainty, Bloomberg reported.

In an interview with the publication, Kingsman said he may revise his forecasts next week, with production in the 2013-2014 crop year as large as 575m tonnes.

In its monthly report, the UN’s Food and Agriculture Organisation said the sugar price index dropped 4.2% in September, versus the previous month, averaging 284 points.

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The decline in sugar quotations reflected an improved sugarcane harvest in Brazil and improved crop prospects in some key producing regions including India, China, and Thailand.