Despite the hype surrounding recent low-carb diet fads, British consumers are not champing at the bit to relinquish their much loved carbohydrates. Although 13% of consumers have had personal experience of a low-carb diet, less than 3% of adults are currently on a low-carb diet or following a low-carb lifestyle.
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This equates to just 1.35 million people. Exclusive consumer research from Mintel highlights a significant rate of “diet drop-out” with an additional 10% of Brits having tried the diet and discontinued it.
As many as 70% of British adults have never been on a low-carb diet and would not consider doing so in the future. Nevertheless, a significant one in ten adults has expressed an interest in following a low-carb diet in the future. This represents further encouragement to suppliers and retailers of low-carb diets, indicating a sizeable latent market potential.
The report highlights “confusion” as the greatest barrier to market growth, with almost a quarter of Brits (23%) believing that the government should establish guidelines as to what a food company can say is low-carb.
Lack of definition leads to confusion
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By GlobalDataThe fact that there is not presently a legal definition of the term low-carb in the food labelling regulations has lead to confusion among consumers.
“While many consumers may have been attracted to the promise of rapid and significant weight loss, they appear to have found it a difficult diet to stick to in the long-term. A number of dieters have not found this diet worked for them; it may be a question that they did not fully understand or trust the diet,” comments James McCoy, senior consumer analyst at Mintel
Education, education, education
Exclusive consumer research questioning around 1,000 consumers highlights exercise as the number one diet method, those adults stating that they would choose this as their preferred weight loss method increasing from six in ten in 2000 to over seven in ten in 2004. Around half (48%) stated they would cut down on fat. Cutting down on chocolate (32%) and snacking between meals at 30% were the next most popular weight loss methods. A further 7% stated they would go on a specific diet (eg Atkins and cabbage soup). Interestingly just 16% of consumers stated they would cut down on carbohydrates, yet 36% said they would reduce their sugar intake.
“The fact that sugar itself is pure carbohydrate reflects the confusion which is evident in this market,” suggests James McCoy.
Evidence suggests that many who have tried a low-carb diet are still not convinced by the science and feel that reducing fat is still the best and healthiest way to lose weight and keep it off. The report highlights the need to reach as wide an audience as possible and suggests that products promoted as both low-carb and low-fat may find a receptive audience. Consumers also need to be convinced that low-carb foods are not just for those on a low-carb diet, just as low-fat foods are not just for those on a low-fat diet. Low-carb could be promoted as part of a balanced diet, or perhaps as a permissible treat. Low-carb may even occupy a position similar to Diet Coke in allowing consumers to feel better about cheating occasionally. Fastfood restaurants could offer burger, chips, diet coke and low-carb ice cream to follow,” suggests McCoy.
The proof’s in the potato
For the first time Mintel has attempted to quantify the market for low-carb products, valuing it at approximately £280m (US$502.3m) in 2004. In terms of the much-reported effect of the growth of low-carb dieting and Atkins in particular on the sales of products banned under such diets, overall, with the exception of potatoes, none of the carbohydrate markets seems to have suffered any significant decline. Indeed, sales of rice and pasta have grown significantly over the past five years. The growth in pasta and rice sales has been in terms of value and not volume reflecting the trend towards the popularity of higher value convenience products. Overall, total sales of the six major product groups discouraged by low-carb diets (bread, potato, pasta, rice, crisps, snacks and fruit juice) have grown by 7% between 1999 and 2003, whereas those encouraged by low-carb diets (red meat, poultry, fish, bacon and cheese) have increased by 11% during the same period, the research association claims.
“The decline in potato sales appears to be a continuation of a long-term trend away from fresh potatoes towards processed potato products. It is possible that the popularity of, and publicity given to, the Atkins Nutritional Approach has served to hasten the rate of decline further” comments McCoy.
Men jumping on the diet bandwagon
There is a large (and, indeed, growing) number of overweight and obese people in the UK, many of whom are desperate to lose weight and who will therefore try any number of different diets. At any one time, more than a third of British are trying to slim, a number which is rising steadily each year. Not surprisingly, slimming is more prevalent among women than men, with more than two fifths claiming to be trying to slim, compared to just a quarter of men.
“Interestingly, the rate of growth in the number of men claiming to be trying to slim has been stronger in the past five years than the number of women, perhaps reflecting the fact that there are substantially more overweight men than women. Interestingly, in terms of preferred dieting methods between men and women, men (at 77%) are more likely than women (66%) to say that they would exercise more regularly if they wanted to lose weight, while they are also more likely to claim that they would cut down on alcohol, 24% of men claiming they would do so compared to just 16% of women.
The growing epidemic of obesity means that there will be no shortage of people in the UK who are overweight or obese for the next five years and probably a lot further into the future than that. Such trends certainly do not bode well for the future health of the nation, but they do mean that demand for diet plans and diet foods will be stronger than ever.
Overall, health reasons (at 53%) and self-esteem (at 41%) are by far and away the most popular reasons for consumers wanting to lose weight. The next most popular reason “to look good for the summer” is cited by 18% of adults while a similar proportion (16%) said they would do it so that they can fit into the clothes they want to wear. A theme of wanting to look good for a particular event or time of year, eg holiday (13%) or for other people (12%) is quite predominant.
Convenience, convenience, convenience
As with all diets, drop-out rate will be of concern to the industry. While this is probably true for most diets, it is worrying that a diet labelled by companies as ‘easy to stick to’ is losing customers.
One way in which the diets can be made easier to follow is through the provision of more ready-prepared and manufactured low-carb foods, instead of people having to make their own meals or recipes all the time. This is steadily happening, with the range of goods and choice of brands growing all the time. Globally, the number of low carb product introductions has increased from 96 in 2001 to 2,663 in 2004 according to Mintel’s global new products database (gnpd).
This information is based on a new report by Mintel. Find our more here.
