The downturn in global beef production is expected to run into 2026, with output projected to fall by about 3.1%, according to Rabobank.
Among the major producers, Brazil, the US and Canada are all expected to see lower beef production, the Dutch investment bank said in a report.
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Rabobank also predicts beef volumes across key producing and consuming regions will already be lower in 2025, as it estimated a contraction of around 0.8% compared to 2024.
New Zealand is forecast to register the sharpest percentage drop in production this year, while the US is set to post the largest fall in absolute volumes.
Retail beef prices have been rising globally as markets contend with limited cattle numbers, especially in the US, a key export market, and in Brazil.
Tighter livestock supplies are having consequences for processors. US-headquartered Tyson Foods recently suggested that beef volumes will continue to suffer as “tight” cattle supply is likely to put upward pressure on prices.
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By GlobalDataThe Arkansas-based company has already pointed to an adjusted operating loss for beef in its new fiscal year of $400-600m.
Recently, Tyson Foods also revealed plans to close its beef-processing plant in Lexington, Nebraska, as it aims to “right size” the struggling segment of the US giant’s meat business.
“The beef segment remains our only soft spot,” president and CEO Donnie King said in his results chat with analysts, adding chicken sales are expected to take up the slack in fiscal 2026 for Tyson’s two biggest revenue earners.
Canada is experiencing a similar tightening pattern to the US. Net beef exports from January to August were roughly 41,000 metric tons lower than a year earlier. Rabobank expects Canadian beef supplies to become “more limited” in 2026.
In New Zealand, beef output is also trending down. Adult cattle production from January to September was just over 475,000 metric tons, around 6% below the same period in 2024.
Rabobank forecasts fourth-quarter production to come in about 2% lower than in the final quarter of 2024, implying an overall decline of roughly 5% for 2025.
Rabobank expects Chinese beef production to grow slightly in 2025, with prices “slowly” recovering as the market works through previous oversupply.
