Mexican bakery group Grupo Bimbo has lowered its full-year revenue guidance due to the impact of the strength in the local currency on its top-line growth.
While the adjustment to the global bakery giant’s expectations for the average peso exchange rate to the US dollar for the rest of 2025 are quite small – now 19.75 pesos versus 20.50 previously – Grupo Bimbo anticipates a negative 250 basis-point weight on revenue growth.
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As a result, the outlook for the fiscal year has been tweaked to mid-single-digit growth from the prior guidance of high single-digits, CEO Rafael Pamias told analysts as he presented second-quarter figures.
More positively, however, Pamias said the adjusted EBITDA margin is likely to expand in the second half from the 13.9% achieved in the reported quarter, which represented a decline of 30 basis points. The margin dropped 100 points in fiscal 2024 to 13.6%.
With an expected improvement in store, the margin for the year is now predicted to be flat to down slightly, compared to a “slight margin contraction” previously, the CEO added.
Opening the call with analysts, Pamias reflected on the “complex and rapidly evolving environment”, which like many other global food companies have reported of late, remains “challenging”.
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By GlobalData“Despite the challenges we have faced this year and the ongoing uncertainty across the macroeconomic environment, we remain confident in our long-term strategy,” Pamias said. “As a highly diversified global company and industry leaders we are well positioned to navigate the current headwinds.”
Group Bimbo, is nonetheless, confident that innovation, strategic investments and acquisitions will accelerate sales growth going forward.
Pamias noted the deal for Wickbold in Brazil is likely to be approved by regulators in the second half of the year, giving an added boost to sales. Other recent acquisitions include Karamolegos Bakery in Romania and Don Don in Slovenia.
The group’s second-quarter sales in local-currency terms rose 9.4% to 107.5bn pesos ($5.7bn). And growth was also reported in Grupo Bimbo’s two largest markets, North America and Mexico, despite what it described as “soft consumption” trends in both.
Sales revenue in North America climbed 8.3% to 49.1bn pesos while Mexico saw a 3% increase to 38.4bn pesos. But there was a contrast in adjusted EBITDA margins – down 70 basis points at 9% in the former and up 30 points in the latter at 20.3%.
CFO Diego Gaxiola gave some insight on the US for Grupo Bimbo’s bakery and snacks products.
“Many of our categories remain challenged in the US, but we are seeing small gains in our mainstream [products] and our buns and rolls,” he said.
“We don’t have enough momentum yet to offset the losses but what we’re now focused on is expanding our offerings in the value segment.
“In our salty snacks business in the US, we’re seeing a bifurcation of consumers, where the economically stressed consumers are moving down to private label or other value offerings, while more affluent consumers are moving to more premium products.”
The publicly listed group is pushing its namesake brand of bread in the value segment but also promoting its “super-premium” sourdough in the latter. The company is also introducing “protein-focused products”, which have “really resonated with the health-conscious and the GLP consumer”, Gaxiola said.
With respect to Mexico, he added: “We’re seeing some softness but we continue to deliver growth in all channels and most categories in Mexico.
“We have a lot of margin manoeuvring because we’re present across both branded and unbranded. We offer a competitive portfolio across channels, categories, locations and consumer needs. We can deliver fresh and frozen, and we are quite fast in adapting.”
Amid the drive in the US by the President Trump administration to eliminate food additives and colourings from food, Grupo Bimbo is taking up the challenge further afield.
“The food industry has a fundamental responsibility of offering safe, nutritious, affordable and accessible products around the world”, and Grupo Bimbo is “fully dedicated to delivering a superior healthy experience”, CEO Pamias said.
He explained that 99% of the group’s daily consumption profile centered around bread, breakfast products and flat breads is already free from artificial flavours and colours.
That will be applied to the full portfolio by the end of 2026. And by 2030, “we’re going to ensure that 100% of our baked goods and snacks will be made with simple, natural recipes that remain still affordable across all points of sale”, Pamias added.
