The wettest autumn on record has left Great Britain wheat plantings at their lowest level for 20 years and down 19% (405,000 hectares) on last season. Total area is estimated at 1.68M ha, compared to 2.08M ha last season. This means the 2001 wheat crop will come from the smallest planted area since 1982.
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Implications for the harvest still depend on how the bad weather has impacted on yield. However, assuming a wheat yield 5% below trend, a crop around 3.5M to 4M tonnes smaller than last season’s 16.7M-tonne wheat harvest could result.
HGCA crop marketing director Alastair Dickie notes: “With a smaller wheat crop, maintaining the quality will be critical to the end-value of the crop. In response to this, HGCA has produced a late-season management checklist ‘Producing Quality Wheat’ which I strongly recommend to growers.” The guide is free to HGCA levy payers. See www.hgca.com or call 020 7520 3920.
Total barley area is 12% higher than last season across Great Britain, but this masks a reduction in winter barley plantings and a large increase in spring plantings.
Winter barley plantings are down 107,000 hectares (18%), whilst spring barley plantings are up 233,000 hectares (46%). Many farmers were able to increase spring barley plantings to offset lower winter plantings, but in some regions weather remained poor through much of the spring drilling period, leaving total cereal area well down.
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By GlobalDataHigher commercial oilseed rape plantings have gone a little way to offsetting lower cereal area, with plantings up 48,000 hectares (15%) to 378,000 hectares. The reduction in area aid however has seen linseed plantings fall 42,000 hectares (59%) to just 29,000 hectares.
Gerald Mason, senior economist at HGCA, notes: “The disrupted plantings have cruelly occurred at the same time as lifetime-low cereal farm incomes and other problems such as foot and mouth disease. However, market prices for both cereals and oilseeds are higher this season than last. At today’s prices, the income of a 100ha cereal farm could rise this season. An average loss of £1000 resulted from harvest 2000, and this could become a positive income of £500 from harvest 2001.”
However, Mr Mason continues: “This average will hide a multitude of individual situations. Where farms have had bad cropping problems, income could fall further to negative £4,000, whilst farms with better-than-average cropping patterns could see incomes rise to positive £5,000.” Putting these levels in to context, the same farm would have achieved an income of £33,000 in 1995.
A further issue for harvest 2001 will be FMD restrictions imposed on some farms. Those subject to Form D or Form A notices should review the guidelines for harvest under restriction at www.defra.gov.uk or follow the link from www.hgca.com
Notes for editors
- Survey forms were sent to around 5,000 holdings across Great Britain in mid-May. Final results are based on usable returns from around 3,300 holdings.
- The survey uses a ‘ratio-raising’ methodology. That is, it asks the sample of farmers what they planted this season and last, derives a ratio change, and applies this to the June Census areas for 2000 to make an estimate of plantings for harvest 2001.
- For questions about market issues arising from the estimates, contact Gerald Mason (020) 7520 3909 or Julian Bell (020) 7520 3911.
- For questions about survey methodology, contact Rupert Somerscales (020) 7520 3913.
