The expected vCJD epidemic could prove to be considerably larger than originally thought, according to scientists from the Medical Research Council Prion Unit in London. The new research was published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences journal.
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In Britain so far, 99 people have been diagnosed with the brain wasting disease, which experts link to the consumption of beef infected with BSE. There is usually a very long period of incubation before vCJD develops, when the infectious agents, prions, attack the brain.
It remains unclear just how many consumers have been exposed to the disease since the “mad cow” epidemic came to light in the latter half of the 1980s, but scientists believe it could be determined by genetic makeup. About 40% of people in Britain have the same genetic make-up (MM) as all the patients so far diagnosed with vCJD and scientists previously assumed therefore that only people with this MM make-up could develop the disease.
John Collinge, director of the unit, and his team argue however that this would give an “overly optimistic” estimation for the size of the vCJD epidemic. The other genetic types in Britain, VV and MV, may just have a longer incubation period.
After conducting research on mice, whose genomes are similar to humans, the scientists found that a number of different genes were subject to the prion disease and now believe that a “second wave” of vCJD cases will emerge as people with genetically longer incubation periods develop the disease. John Collinge, director of the unit, explained: “Those patients we have seen so far with vCJD may be those genetically disposed to have the shortest incubation periods.”
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By GlobalData“This study reminds us that we cannot be complacent about the potential risks to public health posed by BSE. We cannot rule out an epidemic that evolves over decades,” said Collinge.
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