USA: US$51.5bn in US agricultural exports forecast for 2001

Continued strong world economic growth and resulting increases in global imports "will push the projected value of U.S. agricultural exports up US$ 1 billion to US$ 51.5 billion in fiscal 2001," according to a report by the USDA's Economic Research Service, published on August 30, 2000. The report maintains that increases are forecast for cotton and horticultural products while prices, particularly for bulk commodities, "are expected to remain relatively low' limiting gains in export value."USDA said that most of the gain in export value will result from anticipated larger export volume. The expected 2001 bulk export volume is up 9.5 million tonnes from a year earlier, to 121.9 million tonnes, the largest since fiscal 1995.. Corn accounts for two-thirds of the projected total gain, with a strong increase also forecast for wheat.The projected continued increase in U.S. agricultural imports in fiscal 2001 is a modest gain to US$ 39.5 billion. "This reflects slower projected 2001 growth of the U.S. economy and higher domestic supplies of many commodities, while the strong dollar will help hold import values down," USDA noted. It added that most of the import growth is attributed to the major horticultural products - fruits, vegetables, and wine and malt beverages.With exports expected to rise faster than imports for the first time since 1996, the agricultural trade surplus is forecast up.