The US, the world’s largest producer and exporter of almonds, is forecasting a bumper global yield for the new season supported by favourable weather.
For the 2025-26 season, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) estimates worldwide output of shelled almonds will grow by almost 10% to 1.8 million metric tons.
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If that projection is realised, it would be the best crop since 2020-21, according to the USDA’s report – Tree Nuts: World Markets and Trade – containing predictions for almonds and walnuts.
The US is expected to lead the rise in almonds output, forecast as an increase of 122,000 tons to 1.4m tons due to “mild spring temperatures” and supportive rainfall.
Almond production will also be propped up by EU member countries, mainly Spain, along with Australia, but with output growing by a “lesser extent” than the US.
However, yields in Italy are projected to be lower than the past season.
Global exports of almonds are expected to climb 3% to 1.1m tons, with the US leading the way with 925,000 tons and Australia with 138,000 tons.
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By GlobalDataShipments of almonds from the EU are projected to rise to 275,000 tons and increase from India to 180,000 tons.
Meanwhile, global gains in almond exports will be offset by China, where imports are likely to drop by about 25% to 100,000 tons due to “reduced shipments” from the US, the USDA projected, without specifying a reason.
For shelled walnuts, China and the US are the world’s largest producers – 1.6m tons and 547,033 tons, respectively, in 2024-25.
While global walnut production is forecast to rise 3% to 2.7m tons in the new season, output from China is expected to be flat “as higher yields in Xinjiang province are offset by lower yields in Yunnan, Shanxi, and Shaanxi provinces”, according to the USDA.
The US is expected to produce around 100,000 tons more walnuts to give a total output of 644,000 tons.
Global exports of walnuts are projected to also rise 3% to reach an all-time high of 1.2m tons, led by shipments from the US to India, Turkey and the EU.
“China’s exports surged last year and are expected to remain elevated on steady shipments to the European Union and Turkey, offset slightly by weaker demand in the United Arab Emirates and Kyrgyzstan,” the USDA explained.
The Tree Nuts report also takes in pistachios but the USDA was unable to provide an outlook because data from the US is not yet available.
However, it noted that global pistachios production for 2024-25 grew 10% to 1.2m tons for nuts in the shell supported by Turkey, Iran and Syria.
World pistachio exports reached an all-time high of 650,000 tons on “strong shipments from Iran” but dropped 20% out of the US to 350,000 tons amid “lower available supplies”.
