UK food inflation could reach 7% this year, businesses have told the Bank of England.

In the bank’s latest report surveying firms’ opinions on business conditions in the UK, it gave an indication of how respondents viewed the prospects for food inflation in the country in 2026.

“Consumer goods inflation is still centred on food prices, rising 3–4% on a year earlier. Although there is great uncertainty, there is so far more concern over food inflation than for most other goods due to higher energy, transport and agricultural costs,” the Bank of England said today (24 April). “Contacts fear that food inflation is likely to rise through 2026, perhaps to 6–7%, rather than falling back further as previously expected.”

On Wednesday, official UK data showed the prices of food and non-alcoholic drinks rose an annualised 3.7% in March, an uptick on the 3.3% seen a month earlier.

UK trade association The Food & Drink Federation said on Wednesday it sees food inflation reaching 9-10% in 2026.

“The war in Iran has delivered a cost shock that is already too large for manufacturers to absorb in full. The impact on prices will take time to work its way through the system but it’s only a matter of time before it does,” FDF chief economist Dr Liliana Danila said.

“For manufacturers, long-term contracts with suppliers and retailers mean it can take up to a year for higher costs to be fully passed through. But where products are less processed, or supply chains are shorter, prices will move more quickly. As a result, absent of any government intervention, we expect a gradual but persistent pick-up in food inflation, reaching around 9–10% by the end of the year.”