After decades of declining consumption, cow’s milk and its value-added dairy counterparts are experiencing a notable resurgence in the US.
What was once seen as a shrinking category is now showing robust growth. The key drivers behind this revival are the 3 P’s – protein, price and perception. Together, these three factors have reversed a long-term slide and put cow’s milk prominently back on American grocery shelves and in consumers’ refrigerators.
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Additionally, speciality milks – particularly lactose-free and other value-added targeted formulations – are expanding the market, allowing dairy brands and the dairy industry to reach wider consumer segments.
The numbers behind the renaissance
Recent data from grocery industry market research firm Circana provides valuable insights into this comeback, showing sustained growth in cow’s milk and value-added dairy product sales through late 2024 and into early 2025. The dairy sector’s relatively newfound ability to innovate and address evolving consumer needs has proven critical to this success.
In 2024, US consumption of whole milk rose by 3.2%, which was only the second increase since the 1970s, while consumption of plant-based milks fell 5.9%, according to data from Circana. Sales of dairy milk overall were up 1.9%, and sales of raw milk leaped by 17.6%.
It was only a few years ago that many industry analysts and pundits were saying that plant-based milks would soon disrupt cow’s milk and become the future of dairy. That clearly isn’t happening. Cow’s milk is back in a major way for three key reasons – protein, price and perception.
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By GlobalDataProtein: The nutritional powerhouse driving demand
In today’s nutrition-conscious world, protein is king. Consumers across age groups are increasingly prioritising high-protein foods to support muscle maintenance, weight management and overall health. Cow’s milk is a standout source of complete protein (meaning it contains all nine essential amino acids), something many plant-based milk alternatives struggle to match.
According to Circana data, cow’s milk-based value-added dairy products rich in protein – such as Greek yogurt, cottage cheese and kefir – have seen some of the strongest growth within the dairy aisle. For example, cottage cheese sales surged by nearly 17% year-over-year in 2024, a growth partly fueled by innovative new formats like flavoured cottage cheese, cottage cheese ice cream and convenient snacking options that appeal to younger consumers seeking convenient protein sources.
Posts about cottage cheese as a protein heavyweight are also all over social media platforms, particularly TikTok, which has aided its dramatic rise in sales over the last couple of years.
Moreover, with the rise of GLP-1 medications for weight management, consumers are increasingly attuned to balancing high protein intake with low-sugar consumption. Cow’s milk-based dairy fits neatly into this trend, as many products provide a protein-rich, nutrient-dense option with limited added sugars. Circana’s research shows that consumers on these medications often gravitate toward dairy items because they help meet their nutritional goals while avoiding excessive carbs or sugars.
Protein’s central role in fitness and wellness culture also boosts fluid milk’s appeal among athletes and active consumers. Cow’s milk’s natural blend of protein, calcium, and vitamin D makes it a post-workout favourite and an easy addition to balanced diets.
Price: Affordability sustains milk’s mass appeal
Economic factors remain pivotal in shaping consumer behaviour, and here cow’s milk retains a decisive edge. Despite inflationary pressures in recent years, milk remains one of the most affordable sources of essential nutrients like calcium, potassium, and vitamin B12.
Circana’s data shows that private-label dairy sales have hit record highs, increasing 3.9% to $271bn overall. Within dairy specifically, private-label dollar sales reached $33.7bn for the year ended January 2024, with unit sales climbing 2%. This indicates consumers are consciously choosing value-driven brands that deliver quality comparable to national labels but at lower prices.
This price advantage becomes particularly important for families seeking nutritious food options on tight budgets. Whereas many plant-based milk alternatives command a premium, often costing 20-50% more per gallon than cow’s milk, dairy remains accessible. This affordability sustains milk’s role as a dietary staple for millions of Americans.
Additionally, the rise of value-added dairy products like shredded cheese and drinkable yogurts that are competitively priced further supports growth. Consumers can enjoy protein-rich dairy without breaking the bank, a crucial factor during economic uncertainty.
Perception: Tradition, trust and transparency
Consumer perceptions around food have evolved considerably. Today’s shoppers increasingly seek products they perceive as natural, clean, simple and trustworthy. Cow’s milk fits this profile well. Unlike some ultra-processed or heavily formulated plant-based alternatives, milk is straightforward – just milk, with very little processing or additives.
This simplicity resonates with people longing for authentic, “real” foods amidst a complex food environment. There is also a growing appreciation for dairy’s long-standing place in American culture and nutrition.
Moreover, the dairy industry has invested heavily in transparency and sustainability initiatives in recent years, addressing concerns around environmental impact and animal welfare. These efforts have helped rehabilitate dairy’s image, especially among Millennials and Gen Z consumers who care deeply about ethics and sustainability.
Interestingly, Circana’s research suggests younger generations are treating cow’s milk as “the hot new thing”.
After years of milk alternatives dominating the conversation (over the last two years, whole milk has been getting a higher volume of Google Search inquiries than plant-based milk, for example), Gen Z and Gen Alpha consumers are rediscovering dairy products as a source of wholesome nutrition and comfort. This shift is partly cultural, a pushback against the proliferation of artificial or overly complex food products.
Brand and industry marketing campaigns emphasizing milk’s natural origin, nutritional benefits, and evolving sustainability efforts have further improved perception, fueling renewed interest.
Speciality milks: Expanding dairy’s reach
Recognising the prevalence of lactose intolerance and other dietary restrictions, the dairy industry has innovated to include lactose-free and reduced-lactose options.
These products retain the nutritional benefits of traditional milk while eliminating discomfort for sensitive individuals. The availability of such options has broadened the consumer base, contributing to the overall growth in milk sales.
Circana’s data shows that speciality milks are growing at double-digit rates, outpacing traditional milk in many markets. Lactose-free milk, A2 milk (containing only A2 beta-casein protein), and other niche formulations like organic or grass-fed options provide consumers with choice and personalisation. These speciality milk varieties are playing a major role in the cow’s milk sales renaissance in the US.
Additionally, the rise of dairy yogurts fortified with probiotics and functional ingredients aligns with growing consumer interest in gut health and immunity.
Cultured dairy products –which include yogurt, kefir, and fermented milk drinks – have seen an 8.2% sales increase, hitting $11.2bn in 2024, according to Circana. Their appeal combines tradition with modern wellness trends, making dairy relevant to contemporary lifestyles.
Speciality milks also cater to convenience, offering ready-to-drink or portable options that fit busy schedules. This innovation helps dairy compete with alternative beverages targeting the same consumer needs.
Raw milk’s comeback
Raw milk – unpasteurised and unhomogenised – is seeing a surge in sales in states where it’s legally available. While still niche, it appeals to consumers seeking what they describe as “a more natural and authentic dairy experience”.
Enthusiasts say they value raw milk for its richer flavour and perceived health benefits, fitting into the broader trend of favouring minimally processed foods. Though raw milk sales remain small compared to conventional milk, their steady growth reflects consumer interest in simpler, less processed options.
Raw milk also has a powerful ally – Health and Human Services Director Robert F. Kennedy Jr. – in the nation’s capital. Kennedy and his MAHA (Make America Healthy Again) movement, which is now affiliated with President Donald Trump’s MAGA (Make America Great Again) coalition, are major proponents of raw milk and want to see it legalised nationally.
A bright but competitive road ahead
The future of cow’s milk and its value-added products looks promising, though not without competition. The category’s rebound is grounded in lasting consumer shifts toward protein-rich, affordable and more cleaner natural foods. Products like lactose-free milk, high-protein yogurts and even raw milk show dairy’s ability to evolve and meet modern demands, which is something that was lacking only a few years ago.
Still, growth isn’t guaranteed. The industry and brands must continue innovating while addressing concerns about sustainability, animal welfare and transparency. Younger consumers especially want food that aligns with both their health goals and their values.
The key for brands and the industry as a whole will be staying nimble and relevant in a crowded marketplace. But if traditional dairy continues to adapt, the outlook is strong. Cow’s milk is no longer declining – it’s transforming. And in my analysis that transformation positions it well for a healthy future.
