Donald Trump has suggested the US may choose not to renew its trade agreement with Canada and Mexico, raising questions about the future of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA).
Speaking at the White House, Trump criticised trade imbalances with both neighbouring countries and said discussions are ongoing with Canadian and Mexican leaders.
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The USMCA, which replaced the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) five years ago, governs nearly $1.6tn in annual trade among the three countries.
The agreement supports economic integration across North America and was introduced following Trump’s criticisms of NAFTA, which he described as the “worst trade deal” he had ever seen.
Despite the agreement’s aim to promote balanced and reciprocal trade, Trump emphasised that he is not considering its renewal. “I’m not looking to renew it,” Trump said yesterday (10 June).
“We don’t need anything that Canada has. We don’t need anything that Mexico has, but they need everything that we have. They have to treat us better.”
Talks on the future of the USMCA are ongoing. The US Trade Representative’s Office confirmed the US and Mexico are scheduled for further negotiations in Washington on 16 and 17 June, with discussions set to focus on agriculture and creating a “level playing field.”
A third round of talks is planned for the week of 20 July in Mexico City. Canada’s minister responsible for Canada-US trade, Dominic LeBlanc, reported a positive meeting regarding the agreement’s review but indicated that no date has been set for formal negotiations between Canada and the US.
Trade figures from 2025 show the US had a $46bn goods trade deficit with Canada and a $197bn deficit with Mexico. Mexico has been the top US trading partner since 2023, with about 80% of Mexican exports destined for the US.
Nearly 70% of Canadian exports also go to the US, while both countries purchase roughly one-third of exported US goods.
Under current rules, the USMCA is set to expire automatically on 1 July 2036 unless all three nations agree to extend it by 16 years.
If an extension is not agreed, the pact enters a decade-long cycle of annual reviews. If all parties approve the extension, another review is scheduled for 2032.
On Capitol Hill and within the food industry, there remains support for the US to remain in the USMCA.
“Our relationship with these allies puts money in the pockets of family farmers and creates and supports jobs up and down the food supply chain,” US Congresswoman Angie Craig said.
Dave Puglia, the president and CEO of fresh-produce trade body Western Growers, said USMCA is “highly valuable for our members” and added: “At a time of unprecedented trade uncertainty in markets around the world, losing this agreement and the long-standing zero-tariff access for US product into our top two export markets would be a severe blow to our members’ livelihoods.”
And Michael Litche, the chief insights and optimisation officer at US dairy giant Dairy Farmers of America, described as “the most commercially significant trade agreement for the US dairy industry”.
He added: “Mexico and Canada collectively account for over 40% of all US dairy exports by value. Mexico and Canada are by far the top two export destinations for US dairy exports and have been consistently for decades.”
