The US and Argentina are “best positioned” to capture a larger share of global dairy trade as Europe faces tighter production limits, according to Rabobank.
In a new report on global dairy production, the bank said the market is entering a phase in which export growth will depend less on established leaders such as the EU and more on suppliers “able – and willing – to produce more milk”.
Tom Booijink, senior dairy specialist at Rabobank, said the “balance of power is shifting” in global dairy trade, with a “gradual redistribution of export share away from Europe toward more competitive and less constrained producers in the Americas”.
According to the report, global dairy trade grew 11% between 2017 and 2025, rising from 91.1 billion kg to 101.2 billion kg in liquid milk equivalents. Rabobank said volumes are continuing to expand at roughly 2% a year, with cheese the main driver.
Global cheese trade reached 8.96 billion kg in 2025, up 40% from 2017, with US and Argentine exports both doubling over that period.
“In practical terms, the US and Argentina stand out as the only major players both willing and able to significantly up production and address this increasing demand,” the bank said.
Rabobank said Europe is expected to remain “important” but its role in future dairy supply will be“increasingly constrained” by tighter regulation, an ageing farmer base and limited scope to raise yields further.
The EU still accounted for 27% of global dairy exports in 2025, at 27.5 billion kg in liquid milk equivalents, but that was down from close to 30% in 2017.
By contrast, the US increased its share of global exports to 13.5% in 2025 from 11.3% in 2017, while Argentina and Uruguay combined rose to 4.3% from 3%.
Rabobank said: “Growth in the US and Argentina is far less constrained, and both countries show strong potential to expand.”
In Argentina, an 8% production decline between 2022 and 2024 was followed by 10% growth in 2025 and a further 7% rise in the first quarter of 2026, helped by a more business-friendly policy environment, Rabobank said. Much of that additional milk has been shipped to Brazil, where import demand has jumped.
The US offers a more “predictable growth story”, the bank said, supported by a record dairy herd, favourable costs and heavy investment in processing, especially cheese. US cheese capacity alone expanded by 6% in 2025.
On the demand side, China remains the largest importer but weaker purchases are redirecting exporters toward the Middle East, Southeast Asia and Brazil.
Rabobank said those markets, together with expanding cheese and whey demand, will continue to reshape trade flows even if overall growth remains near its long-term trend.
